Gale Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 080059
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST MON JAN 7 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW 59N 149W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
MONDAY NIGHT. A 975 MB LOW AT 50N 141W WILL MOVE TO 56N 140W EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS 985 MB. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 59N 149W
TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON WEDNESDAY. 
$$

PKZ351-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST MON JAN 7 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST MON JAN 7 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 081241
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW AT 54N 136W WILL MOVE TO 57N 138W EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS 985 MB THEN DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 983 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 59N 147W TUESDAY EVENING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-090300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-090300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 090036
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 979 MB LOW AT 55N 135W WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB AND MOVE INLAND NEAR
59M 140W WED AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 59N 146W 61N 147W LATE WED
NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-091500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-091500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1245 PM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...OMEGA BLOCK IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND CLOSED LOWS
OVER KAMCHATKA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE KAMCHATKA LOW IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. THE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS
AND WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW (EASTERN BERING/ALASKA
PENINSULA) AND CONTRIBUTING TO LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE LOW (OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL). A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION AS WELL AS THE WESTERN KENAI AND
ANCHORAGE. FINALLY THERE IS A LARGE MATURE LOW NEAR 45N 170W...BUT
IT IS NOT IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TRIPLE POINT WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A LOW
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW UP AS THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT IN STALLING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AND PUSHING TROUGH NORTH AND WEST OF LOW CENTER FARTHER WEST
ACROSS THE GULF. THE GFS THEN MAINTAINS A LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/NAM ARE ALL IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE ORIGINAL LOW FARTHER EAST WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING TO NORTHERN GULF WHERE A NEW LOW FORMS. THE KEY IS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WHERE THE GFS HOLDS BACK THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS SWING IT NORTHWARD. HAVE COORDINATED WITH JUNEAU
WFO TO GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS ONE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FINE-TUNING OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...NORTHERN GULF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FORMS
BACK OVER THE GULF AND AGAIN TRACKS TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTAET ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER DROPS TO KODIAK ISLAND ON
MONDAY. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRIER...BUT WEAK UPPER LIFT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TUESDAY
WITH SNOW CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALASKA PENINSULA...STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GO THROUGH PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING
AND WEAKENING...BUT GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME IN THE
SHORT-TERM. SO COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING/SOUTHWEST COAST/ALASKA PENINSULA. INLAND
AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACCOSIATED WITH
UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AS MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE EAST AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE WEST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH BLOCKING RIDGE OVERHEAD AND JET WELL
TO THE SOUTH DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WILL REMAIN SO AS IT SLOWLY ELONGATES AND SHEARS
APART ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...OMEGA BLOCK WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR A WHILE
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 179 180
                              185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 08