Gale Warning 631, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM AKDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED FROM
BARROW TO JUST WEST OF COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW CAN
BE FOUND UNDERNEATH THIS TROUGH SOUTH OF SEWARD. AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT
IS MARCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING WITH WEAK RIDGING IN-BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NAM HAS DONE REMARKABLY WELL WITH THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN...SO WE SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM ITS SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. SOME UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINNING MON
NIGHT AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ALONG THE BERING FRONT AS IT ENTERS
THE WESTERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING AND THUS SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE WESTERN KENAI UP
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. AS THE PRECIP SHIELD
MOVES EAST ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...RAIN SHOWERS AROUND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD TURN TO SNOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WX ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

THE NEXT BIG QUESTION HAS TO DO WITH WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK LATE MON INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM (DUE TO ITS SUPERIOR HANDLING OF THE CURRENT
SYSTEM) WHICH FORMS A LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND TRACKS IT ON A VERY
SIMILAR PATH TO TODAYS LOW. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL MON
NIGHT AND TUE. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY RAISING MANY QUESTIONS...WE
WILL STICK WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR NOW UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A
LITTLE CLEARER...BUT STAY TUNED.

FURTHER WEST...THE STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE
ITS STEADY PUSH TOWARD THE SW COAST. MAX GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF WARM AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ALONG THE SW COAST BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT DUE TO PLENTY OF
COLD AIR LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THIS LAST SYSTEM. RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST IS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN...AND WITH THE
EXPECTED SNOW...BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE BUT THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING SO NO HEADLINES
WILL BE HOISTED AT THIS TIME. INLAND BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AS THE FRONT LAYS RIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 185 412.
         GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 411
              413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA