Gale Warning 616, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091528 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
725 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

UPDATED ZONE 129 130 138 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON THU AND REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THU NIGHT. A 979 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 175 NM
SOUTH
OF SAND POINT FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK AT 984 MB FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-100200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100200-
PASSAGE CANAL
725 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-100200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
725 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
725 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
725 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 25 KT INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 100040 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 125

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE THE NORTH GULF 
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. A 983 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK CITY FRI NIGHT MOVES TO 70 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK AT 988 MB
SAT AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-101400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-101400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
55 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 
11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 
6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-101400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS DRIVEN
THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THE PAST WEEK IS NOW EXITING
OFF TO THE EAST. A FILLING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF IS PRODUCING
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
REMNANT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

OUT WEST THERE IS A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS CAUSING
AMPLIFICATION. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS A 165 KT SUBTROPICAL
JET. RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW...WHICH WILL BE A
MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE LOW AND SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THESE
CHANGES WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST. OTHER REFINEMENTS
OF THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY HEAD DOWNHILL LATE TONIGHT
OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION CAN OCCUR. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS...THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...AND
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER BASIN WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON
FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY
WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO IT WILL BE VERY WET SNOW. STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION IN THE USUAL PLACES...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF
THE (MORE FAVORABLE) SOUTH AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS ARE STRONG...SO EXPECT
EVEN DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

A VERY STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT SETTING UP A STORM FORCE BARRIER JET WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THIS FRONT INLAND...SO WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...PASSAGE CANAL...AND BECOME GUSTY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BASED VERY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT AND
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT NEAR BARREN
ISLANDS AND NORTHWARD TRACK OF WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW...THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES FOR ZONE 101 AND 125 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. ALSO...A
HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE A LOT OF THE SAME
AFFECTS AS SOUTHCENTRAL. EXPECT RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO OVERSPREAD
BRISTOL BAY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA WILL START AS SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THURSDAY. THE LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 960 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL HELP ENHANCE WINDS...SO THERE COULD BE
SOME HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. THE LOW WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF ON FRIDAY SETTING UP BROAD AND STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING REGION. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125. HIGH WIND WATCH 135.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125 155 170 172 179 180 185.
         GALE WARNING 129 130 132 150 160 165 171 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 08