Gale Warning 577, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 082342
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

$$

PKZ351-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 091143
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON THU AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THU NIGHT. A 979 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
53N 161W FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 55N 155W AT 984MB
FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-100200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-100200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SWIRL AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OVER WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THE SNOW THAT FELL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL HAS RESULTED IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND
REGION.

A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA HELPING TO GRADUALLY SHUT OFF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DOMINATED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK FRONT BEHIND
THE RIDGE IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BRINGING WARM AND
STABLE AIR WITH IT.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...A TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. A 160 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH IS AIDING
IN DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED WITH ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A MAJOR STORM.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE FINALLY ALL COME INTO
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW AND ITS
MOVEMENT INTO THE BERING SEA. ALL THREE MODELS ALSO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF TRIPLE POINT LOWS OVER THE EASTERN BERING THURSDAY
AND BARREN ISLANDS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER BARREN ISLANDS...WHICH GREATLY AFFECTS
TURNAGAIN ARM WIND FORECAST. BASED ON STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE NAM
IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS LOW POSITIONS...BUT CAN STILL BE USED AS
GUIDANCE FARTHER FROM THE LOW CENTERS WHERE IT SOLUTION MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THE OTHER MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND SLOWLY
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST SO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY
SPELL (WITH CLEARING SKIES) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM OUT WEST WILL MOVE
TO KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW...PARTICULARLY INLAND...BUT
MOST PLACES WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS VERY WARM AIR IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN ORIENTATION FAVORABLE
FOR BARRIER JET FORMATION. IF A TRIPLE POINT LOW DOES DEVELOP IN THE
BARREN ISLAND REGION THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE EAST-WEST GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST EVEN FURTHER. CONDITIONS LOOK EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND
TURNAGAIN ARM. OF COURSE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
OR TRACK COULD CHANGE THAT. FOR NOW WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION AS WELL AS A FEW FLURRIES OR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL COMPLETELY EXIT LATER WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY HEAD
DOWNHILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION
TO RAIN MOST PLACES...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SCOUR
OUT THE COLD AIR FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF
NEXT SYSTEM CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MUCH HIGHER. THUS WILL BEGIN TO ADD
MORE DETAIL INTO LATEST FORECAST AND INCREASE WIND FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN 850 MB JET OF
AROUND 75 KT OVER THIS SAME AREA. GRANTED...THIS IS A STABLE WARM
ADVECTION SCENARIO...BUT AFFECT OF COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL AID IN
ACCELERATION OF WINDS AND THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WINDS
TO BLOW IN THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODERATE COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS MAY REACH HURRICANE FORCE...BUT WILL WAIT
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE UPPING WINDS THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA LOW COMPLEX WILL TRANSITION
TO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING WET CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125. HIGH WIND WARNING 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 170 171 172 176 179 180.
         GALE WARNING 150 160 165 130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 08