Gale Warning 576, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 072322
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR 44N 171E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 54N 170W WED EVENING. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT TO 54N 174W 
THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF 56N...E TO SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
SOUTH OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NORTH OF 56N...E TO SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
SOUTH OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW TO SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SOUTH OF 55N...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. NORTH OF 55N...NE WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 60 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SOUTH OF 56N...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. NORTH OF 56N...E TO SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT.
SEAS 24 TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 080055 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

CORRECT ZONE 414


WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR 44N 171E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 54N 170W WED EVENING. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT TO 54N 174W 
THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF 56N...E TO SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
SOUTH OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NORTH OF 56N...E TO SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
SOUTH OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW TO SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SOUTH OF 55N...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. NORTH OF 55N...NE WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 60 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SOUTH OF 56N...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. NORTH OF 56N...E TO SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT.
SEAS 24 TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 081214
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 45N 179E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB AS IT MOVES TO
56N 171W THU. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 969 MB AT 54N 166W THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NORTH OF 56N...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. SOUTH
OF 56N...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 FT. SEAS 22 FT EXCEPT SEAS 14 FT SOUTH OF 56N. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF 55N...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. NORTH OF 55N...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO
N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH
OF 56N. SEAS 24 FT EXCEPT SEAS 18 FT SOUTH OF 56N. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 6 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS STILL DOING FINE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
CONTINUING PROBLEMS WITH THE COMPLEX LOW MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS.
EVEN THERE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE WITH A SOLUTION NOT
TOO FAR OFF FROM WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGEST FEATURE OVER THE STATE IS THE
LARGE AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR ILIAMNA. THIS
LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND MOVE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALSO VERTICALLY STACK THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE NEAR
MONTAGUE ISLAND TONIGHT. BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KICK OUT INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LARGE LOW
PUSHES IT EASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIG WEATHER QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW IS SNOW AND HOW MUCH IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INCLUDING THE
ANCHORAGE AREA. THERE IS A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL SET UP IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR A LARGE OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT. THE 500 MB TROUGH IS WEAKLY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE 850 MB THERMAL
STRUCTURE IS NOT PRODUCING A SURFACE THAT WILL ENHANCE SNOW
DEVELOPMENT. WHAT IS LOOKING FAVORABLE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE AREA FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. EXACTLY HOW MUCH IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE SINCE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS CAN CAUSE A
LARGE RANGE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER A SMALL AREA.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BUT STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TURNAGAIN ARM.
RAIN IS LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WELL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR IN ALL
AREAS WILL BE DISPLACED BEFORE PRECIPITATION OCCURS SO RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY THAN SNOW FROM THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 08