Gale Warning 571, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191541 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

UPDATED ZONE 120.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVES INLAND SAT MORNING NORTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-200200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
740 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-200200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-200200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT EAST
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TO THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE KODIAK LOW INTO THE GULF AS OPPOSED TO DRIFTING IT INTO COOK
INLET.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER WESTERN ALASKA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND HAS WEAKENED A BIT
SINCE THIS MORNING AND HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER AFOGNAK
ISLAND. THE WEATHER FRONT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY, NORTHERN COOK INLET,
NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM IS STILL MOVE NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WAS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND ALONG
THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ALONG THE SUSITNA
VALLEY SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND IT THOUGH THEY ARE STILL QUITE GUSTY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN COOK INLET WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS
A NEW UPPER CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND
THE NEW CENTER AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY AND NORTHERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAKENING LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WILL
EXPAND NORTH AND EAST TO COVER THE REST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
WILL BECOME SHOWERY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SHOWERS.

A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA FRIDAY THEN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY.

A BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE MCKENZIE DELTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

SAM/NM SEP 08