Gale Warning 568, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 172322 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH CHIGNIK WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND
STRENGTHEN TO 981 MB THU MORNING THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND WEAKEN TO 998 MB FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-181400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ129-181400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS LESS 
THAN 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ141-181400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THIS MORNING...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A 993 MB LOW PRESSURE
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO
SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING MANY INLAND AREAS OF THE COOK INLET REGION
WHICH ARE NORMALLY DRIER. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVING RIDING
THE JET STREAM EAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE BERING/ALEUTIANS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING OKAY...NOT GREAT...NOT TERRIBLE. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE IS THE LOW RIDING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND REACHING
THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE
ON WHETHER THE LOW GOES JUST WEST OF SHELIKOF STRAIT OF STAYS OVER
KODIAK. WE ARE GOING WITH THE EASTERN ENVELOPE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS...TAKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND. THE LOW THEN
STALLS OUT AROUND KODIAK ISLAND...BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW LONG
IT STALLS OUT. WE ARE GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE LOW KICKS OUT A
LITTLE FASTER AND TOWARD SEWARD...WHICH IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT WITH. FOR THE LONG
TERM...FAVORING THE 0Z ECMWF OVER THE 0Z GFS...AS THE 0Z GFS WAS
MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 0Z ECMWF WAS
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE TODAY...AS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH KICKS THROUGH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER SOME
AREAS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM HOT ON ITS HEELS BEGINS TO AFFECT
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A STRONG LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF...REACHING KODIAK TONIGHT AND MAXING
OUT AT AROUND 982 MB. THIS LOW THEN NEARLY STALLS OUT AND EVENTUALLY
SLOWLY KICKS OUT NORTHEAST FROM KODIAK AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS PROLONGED RAIN
AND WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL RETURN TO KODIAK
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE KENAI THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST SYSTEM IN THAT
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OVER THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE TO PALMER. ALSO...STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
USUAL CHANNELED AREAS LIKE TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY. LITTLE
OR NO CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SPREAD ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL MAINLY INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GLOOMY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY KICK
OUT OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TO KODIAK...AND
FAIRLY STRONG SHOWERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ESPECIALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SET INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN FOREVER. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS YET...BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF NICE FALL DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT
IN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 155 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 08