Gale Warning 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF INCONSISTENCY THE MODELS ARE FINALLY IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE EUROPEAN MODELS. AS FOR THE EXTENDED
MODELS THEY SEEM TO FALL APART BEYOND FRIDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE
GFS FOR CONTINUITY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
KODIAK THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SLOWLY FILL AND ELONGATE INTO A TROF
BUT THE REMANENTS OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN AROUND SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING BUT A SECOND LOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ITS
PLACE UNDER THE TROF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST
WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IN THE EXTREME WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
WITH THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST AND A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF EXPECT

AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
INLAND.

SOUTHWEST...CONTINUED COLD AND MOSTLY DRY.

OUT WEST...GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH TODAY
BUT EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND NOT SO WINDY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
GULF OF ALASKA LOWS...CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL FOR
THE WEEK. COLD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FOR THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. BERING SEA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08