Gale Warning 536, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 162316 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

CORRECTED 351 AND 352.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 58N 148W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE
NEAR 60N 147W WED MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 51N 173W WILL MOVE OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 982 MB THU AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-171400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-171400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 171147
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 993 MB LOW AT 61N 148W EARLY THIS MORNING DISSIPATES THIS 
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND. A 986 MB LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO 55N
157W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AT 982 MB THU MORNING.
THE LOW THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO 992 MB LATE
THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 172314
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 55N 158W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 153W AND STRENGTHEN
TO 981 MB THU MORNING THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AT 59N 153W AND
WEAKEN TO 998 MB FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-181400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-181400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 181137
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 18 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB LOW AT 58N 153W EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS TO 59N 154W THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS TO 989 MB. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO 59N 148W AT
1002 MB LATE FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-190200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-190200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 182300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR 59N 154W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 149W AND WEAKEN TO
996 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE NEAR 60N 146W SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-191400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-191400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. COPIOUS
RAIN SURROUNDS THE LOW ALONG WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS OUT AHEAD AND NORTH OF THE LOW AND IS SPREADING
RAIN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

COMPLEX SETUP OUT WEST THIS MORNING...WITH A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT
LOW SOUTH OF ADAK...A WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING...AND AN OLD
WEAK VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW OUT WEST AS IT
IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE POSITION WITH REGARDS TO THE JET STREAM
OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN THE
EAST...0Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT LOW IN THE
GULF AND ITS MOVEMENT INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT ARE HAVING A
BIT MORE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT LOW. MODELS ARE JUST NOW COMING INTO
BETTER...BUT STILL NOT PERFECT...AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST TOWARD KODIAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH ALL MODELS. 0Z RUNS HAVE CONVERGED TO
TRACK THE LOW NEAR OR OVER KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY...AND QUITE STRONG
TO AROUND 980 MB. 0Z GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN HAVING THE SAME LOCATION
WITH THIS LOW FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW (OVER KODIAK)...WHILE ALL 12Z
GFS RUNS INTERESTINGLY HAVE HAD A DIFFERENT SOLUTION (BRISTOL
BAY)...JUST AN EXAMPLE OF THE WACKY MODEL BEHAVIOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A 994 MB GALE FORCE LOW IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AND
WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY WEDNESDAY. UNLIKE SOME
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL EASILY SPREAD RAIN OVER THE KENAI
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO INLAND AREAS. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN FROM
HOMER TO ANCHORAGE AND WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. IF IT WERE A MONTH LATER...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR
SNOW OVER INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT NOT QUITE YET. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL BE RIDING ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS STRENGTHENING ALL ALONG. THIS LOW WILL REACH KODIAK ISLAND
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW. THE BREAK BETWEEN
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND THE FIRST LOW WILL BE VERY
BRIEF...AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE LATELY. THE SECOND LOW HAS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THAN THE
FIRST LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ADAK THIS MORNING WILL RIDE
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...STRENGTHENING ALL
ALONG. A WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING MOVING TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS
WILL DISSIPATE AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE STRONGER ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FOR THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY SPEAKING...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OR KODIAK ISLAND WATERS WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BUT BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MAINLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL USHER
IN THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 150 155 170 351.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 08