Gale Warning 528, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 092310
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR 58N 159W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A 994 MB LOW NEAR 52N 166E WILL
MOVE TO NEAR 49N 172W AT 989 MB THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ411-101400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT
INCREASING TO 35 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 5 FT...BUILDING TO 10 FT S OF 56N.

.WED...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
HIGHEST SEAS S OF 56N. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 7 TO 11
FT. HIGHEST SEAS S OF 56N.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-101400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-101400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT...DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-101400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 101138
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR 52N 165E WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE TO 
50N 178E BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 991 MB AND 
MOVE TO 50N 167W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-110200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE TO E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-110200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...N TO NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-110200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N TO NE WIND 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-110200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 102359
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 163W AND WEAKEN TO
992 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRI.

$$

PKZ411-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT SOUTH OF 56N. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT SOUTH OF 56N. VARIABLE WIND 15 KT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 110001 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 411

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 163W AND WEAKEN TO
992 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRI.

$$

PKZ411-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT SOUTH OF 56N. NE WIND 20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT SOUTH OF 56N. VARIABLE WIND 15 KT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 111120
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

$$

PKZ411-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...N TO E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008

CORRECTED HEADLINES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON MAJOR
FEATURES THROUGH 48 HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
INCLUDE THE HANDLING OF THE LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT. PREVIOUS RUNS WERE CONSISTENTLY BRINGING THE LOW TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER BACK TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. THE GFS WAS THE FIRST AND NOW THE NAM
AND ECMWF AGREE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY. WHILE IT MAKES SENSE TO TAKE
THE LOW NORTHWARD UNDER THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...STILL THINKING THAT
SOME REMNANT LOW MAY REMAIN NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL MAKE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FROM COOK INLET TO
SHELIKOF STRAIT.

ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AND WHERE THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT 48 HOURS IS THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS INCLUDING EVEN THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC...AGREED TO STICK WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN
OF THE GFS WHICH IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE EUROPEAN AND EVEN
THE NAM AT THIS POINT. IT IS LIKELY THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME TRANSITIONING THE UPPER LOW FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE
BERING SEA TOWARD THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND LATER THIS WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 996 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE LATEST OF MANY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOWS UNDER
THE LARGE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROL TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL CHALLENGES
TO THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE FIRST WILL BE THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE CHANNELED WINDS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND
TURNAGAIN ARM. THE INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE THE TURNAGAIN ARM
WIND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS
TO REACH JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE INITIAL FRONT PASSES. THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL RAINS FROM THE WESTERN
KENAI UP TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT ITS ORIENTATION ENOUGH TO FAVOR A
PORTAGE VALLEY WIND EVENT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. THE BREAK
BETWEEN SYSTEMS HAVE ALLOWED RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS TO SUBSIDE BUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FORECASTED THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING
BACK FLOODING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO COORDINATE WITH THE RFC AND
MONITOR RIVER GAUGES AROUND THE AREA.

RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS FED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
CONCERN OUT WEST WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE WEAKENING LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE AFFECT IT HAS ON SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. STEADY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS
TUESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN SYSTEMS MID TO LATER IN
THE WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
WIDESPREAD FOG PERSISTS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE IS
MUCH DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF THE LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
ALEUTIANS. WHILE THE PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS INEVITABLE WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 125.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 175 176 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB SEP 08