Gale Warning 525, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO PRONGED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS
MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA. JET STREAM
BEGINNING TO BUCKLE AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH
A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY TO KODIAK ISLAND BY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN REACHING THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THEY WILL LOSE MUCH OF
THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING SHOWERS AT A MINIMUM THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL BE OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN BERING SEA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
NUMERICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS IT LOOKS LIKE MILD AND SOMEWHAT CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 08