Gale Warning 524, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 020000
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR 58N 154W WILL DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE NEAR 59N
157W MON NIGHT. A 999 MB LOW NEAR 48N 168W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 153W
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE TUE EVENING THEN WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N
149W AND WEAKEN TO 1009 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-021400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-021400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 021148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 999 MB LOW AT 53N 159W WILL MOVE TO 56N 154W AT 997 MB THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TO 59N 150W AT 1009 MB BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW 
WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-030200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-030200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 022307
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 56N 154W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 153W TUE NIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE NEAR 60N 152W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-031400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-031400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 031128
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 3 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 58N 152W WILL MOVE TO 60N 153W TUE AFTERNOON 
AT 1006 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON THU. 
$$

PKZ351-040200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 3 2008

.TODAY...SE TO SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT 
ALL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-040200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 3 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
110 PM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER TODAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 970 MB EARLY THIS MORNING AND
IS NOW SLOWLY RISING AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND.
QUIKSCAT WINDS SHOW WIDESPREAD GALES NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
EXTENDING OUT ALONG THE OCCLUSION ACROSS THE KODIAK ISLAND WATERS.
THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH WAS CONFIRMED BY BUOY 46066 WHICH RECORDED A GUST TO
58 KT AND A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 26 FT EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THIS VERY SIGNIFICANT WAVE TRAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. RIDGING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST COMBINED WITH
STRONGER WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION ARE
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL EAST-WEST GAPS IN THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WHILE ANOTHER BAND MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND HAS BEEN OBSERVING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALL MORNING WITH 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED
FROM 12Z AND 18Z.

ASIDE FROM THIS MAJOR STORM...A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS IS TRACKING EASTWARD WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE ALEUTIANS.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS INITIALIZED TOO WEAK WITH THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS MORNING...BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE MODELS ARE VERIFYING WELL WITH THE WIND FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND...BUT
THEN THE ECMWF/NAM MOVE THE LOW WESTWARD TO BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE
UKMET/GFS WEAKEN IT OVER KODIAK ISLAND. THINK THE MORE LIKELY
SOLUTION IS A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW REMAINING OVER KODIAK ISLAND
AND A SECONDARY VERY WEAK LOW FORMING IN BRISTOL BAY AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS BACK WESTWARD. SINCE WIND SPEEDS IN THE VICINITY WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE ON WIND DIRECTION.

THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER AND THE OTHER THREE MODELS ARE IN THE
BALLPARK...SO WILL STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN
REASONABLY CONSISTENT. FOR THE SAME REASONS WILL ALSO USE GFS OUT
WEST WITH LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST TONIGHT AS THE OCCLUSION APPROACHES. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
PUSHED NORTHWARD THE ORIENTATION OF THE ISOBARS WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTH/SOUTH TO NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME...WHILE PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS REMAIN STRONG AS THEY RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
FRONTAL WINDS. GALES WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE COASTLINE WITH STRONGER
GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OVER KODIAK
ISLAND. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION ON LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL
RANGE TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO BREAK
IN RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND LATE
TUESDAY. THIS LOW DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTH...HEADING INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THEREFORE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS...BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MID WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY.

SOUTHWEST...BANDS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AS UPPER LEVEL
WAVES AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW ROTATE WESTWARD FROM THE KODIAK
LOW. DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT NORTH AND
WEST TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.  MORE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
TAKES A TRACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM THE MAJOR SYSTEMS DEVELOPING AND TRACKING
ALONG THE TROUGH EDGES. THUS GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVELS ARE IN TRANSITION. THE END RESULT OF
MAINTAINING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA REGION IS THE SAME.
THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE A SHORT PERIOD OF TRANSITIONING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS WHICH MAKES PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR SYSTEMS DIFFICULT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 138 140 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 08