Gale Warning 522, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 311235 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

CORRECTED ZONES 120 132

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 981 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY AT 988 MB BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF KING SALMON AND WEAKEN TO 1002
MB BY LATE MON NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-010200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-010200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 14
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-010200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 311752 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
950 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

UPDATED ZONE 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 981 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY AT 988 MB BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF KING SALMON AND WEAKEN TO 1002
MB BY LATE MON NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-010200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-010200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 14
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-010200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
950 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA TO A LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS AND DOWN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THE LOW AND ITS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE NEARLY STATIONARY SO RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING REGION AND THE SOUTHWEST
COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE AND 100KT+ JET STREAK MOVING UP THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW
WITH A TRACK TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS
IS AMPLIFYING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THIS
IS A CHANGE FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS ON FRIDAY WHICH INDICATED A TRACK
TO KODIAK ISLAND THEN EASTWARD. NOW THE LOW TRACK IS WESTWARD FROM
KODIAK ISLAND AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND
MAINTAINS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE BERING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LARGELY REFLECTS THIS NEW TRACK...BUT SOME FINE-TUNING
OF WINDS WILL BE MADE. THE AFFECT OF THIS WILL ALSO BE TO FORCE
THE NEXT LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FARTHER EAST
THAN YESTERDAY...TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER A
BIT ON THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT THE GFS IS PREFERRED
DUE TO GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SINCE THE 00Z RUN YESTERDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL BE THE STRONGEST
IN QUITE SOME TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO COME UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
GALES AS WELL AS STORM FORCE GUSTS THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT. ALSO
EXPECT VERY HIGH SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY
WITH A MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AROUND 25 FEET. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK UPPER WAVES MAKING IT INLAND. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH KODIAK ISLAND LATE TUESDAY...SO THERE WONT BE MUCH BREAK(IF
ANY)IN THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM MAY MAKE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND BRING RAIN TO INLAND
AREAS.

SOUTHWEST...AS THE DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST TO END.
HOWEVER...RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE LOW WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH
NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND...SO EXPECT STRONG GAP
WINDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT
OF RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING LOW BECOMES DOMINANT.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. A NEW SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON
THIS TRACK ONLY IMPACT WILL BE A BIT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GFS 500MB 5-WAVE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALASKA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. THEREFORE...DONT
EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM CURRENT PATTERN. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED MOVING INTO THE FALL SEASON THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING
MORE BAROCLINIC AND STORMS ARE GETTING STRONGER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 08