Gale Warning 516, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 231156
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL BECOME A 1000 MB LOW 270 NM
SOUTH OF ADAK SUN NIGHT. A 996 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 240 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK SUN MORNING AND MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY MON
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
SEA.

$$

PKZ150-240200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-240200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-240200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-240200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 8 FT PACIFIC
SIDE...5 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT PACIFIC SIDE...5 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT PACIFIC SIDE...5 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-240200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT FRI AUG 22 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL TODAY AND ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TIME FRAME TODAY. BETTER DAY THAN THE LAST COUPLE
WITH MODEL CONTINUITY. LAST NIGHT...THE 00Z EC AND NAM WERE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS. EVERY MODEL VERY SIMILAR TO THESE SOLUTIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR WITH THE
SPEED OF THE NEXT LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN DAY 2. BEST SOLUTION
FOR TODAY WAS TO USE THE PREVIOUS GRIDS AND PICK UP SOME OF THE NEW
DETAILS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE 12Z GFS WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
THROUGH THE FIRST 5 DAYS AS WELL.

.ANALYSIS...
SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION AND STRATUS THROUGHOUT
THE BERING. TRANSITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AN
EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS. WEAKER WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE...SO
ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS CREATES AN AREA CONDUCIVE TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS EVIDENT YESTERDAY WHEN HAIL AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVED OVER ANCHORAGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH A STRONG JET
RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THE
GULF TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. THE LOW IN THE GULF TO COMBINE WITH AN
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT TO FORM A LARGE LOW IN
THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY. THE LOW TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY. A GOOD EASTERLY WAVE TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE RIDGE IN THE BERING EVAPORATES AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW. WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND THE GULF LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW IN THE BERING SPINS UP A BIT. THIS LOW PUSHES OUT THE GULF LOW
MONDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...A POLAR LOW
DROPS INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN BERING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND AND PANHANDLE TO REMAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
ALEUTIANS AND BERING...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING COMBINED WITH A
WEAK HIGH IN THE WESTERN BERING TO KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND STRATUS AND
FOG OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW. THE WESTERN BERING TO BE
AFFECTED BY A LOW STARTING LATE TOMORROW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW CENTER TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...BUT
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS TO WORK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE LOW TO STRETCH AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AS THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TODAY. AIR MASS TO BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE AIR ALOFT WARMS. STILL ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A GOOD EASTERLY WAVE ON SUNDAY
FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WITH A FEW EASTERLY WAVES TO PUSH AROUND THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE FIRST ONE IS TODAY THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
KENAI PENINSULA. COMBINED WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT...ANY BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH IN THE SAME MANNER AS YESTERDAY. THE NEXT
WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF ROTATES TO
THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE COMBINING WITH THE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WAVE HAS A DECENT SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE WIND
FIELD AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND EAST WEST GAPS OF SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER WAVE TO WORK
TO THE COPPER BASIN SUNDAY...BUT STOPPED SHORT OF ROTATING FARTHER
EAST SINCE THE UPPER LOW GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE LESS ON SUNDAY EXCEPT NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE BERING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
DIG A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THIS WILL PUSH THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF AND DEEPEN.
ESSENTIALLY...THERE WILL BE A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE BERING WITH A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NELSON AUG 08