Gale Warning 514, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 192002 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1155 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

UPDATED 170

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 125 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS TO 100 NM NORTH OF KISKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
OKMOK VOLCANO 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE.

$$

PKZ150-200200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-200200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-200200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-200200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-200200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-200200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1155 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...ASHFALL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF UMNAK ISLAND...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-200200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-200200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-200200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-200200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-200200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-200200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 192305
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS TO 130 NM NORTH OF ATKA THURSDAY. OKMOK VOLCANO
65 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE.

$$

PKZ150-201400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-201400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-201400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-201400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-201400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-201400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...ASHFALL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF UMNAK ISLAND...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-201400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-201400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-201400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-201400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-201400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-201400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVING
ESSENTIALLY EASTWARD. CYCLONIC FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA. RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THE MAIN JET STREAM SCRAPES THE ALEUTIANS...BUT IS
ESSENTIALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. STUCK MAINLY WITH THE 00Z
AND/OR 12Z GFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WITH A LITTLE 12Z NAM AND
ECMWF SPRINKLED IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. DIFFERENCES FROM 60 TO 120
HOURS ARE MAINLY IN THE DETAILS...BUT ENOUGH MODEL DIVERGENCE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE. PREFERENCE FOR THIS PERIOD WAS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
GULF LOW STILL PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE LOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF RAIN IN KODIAK FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND POSSIBLY THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. SHOWERS EXPECTED INLAND THIS EVENING AND
EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A LINE RUNNING FROM GLENNALLEN THROUGH MCGRATH. SOME SUPPRESSION OF
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME DOWNWARD MOTION FROM THE GULF LOW.

ON TUESDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST
DUE TO A RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY. SOME WARMING ALOFT OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL KEEP SHOWERS TO A
MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND SIZE ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTHER ALASKA.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS...BUT ALL AGREE ON KEEPING THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 132 150.
         GALE WARNING 120 130 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG AUG 08