Gale Warning 495, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231756 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA UPDATED
1000 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 60 NM NORTH OF KODIAK WED EVENING AND 
STRENGTHEN TO 999 MB AS IT MOVES TO 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND THU NIGHT.

UPDATED ZONES 120 125 129

$$

PKZ120-240200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1000 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
SUCKLING TO CAPE HINCHINBROOK. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E WIND 15 KT W OF MIDDLETON 
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1000 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-240200-
PASSAGE CANAL
1000 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-240200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING 
TO 5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ANCHOR LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE BERING STRAIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT-WAVES
EXITED SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AND IS HEADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...BUT CONTINUES
PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA TO BRISTOL BAY. RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD BRISTOL BAY AND IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET.

AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE BERING STRAIT...THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. LASTLY...A WEAK SURFACE
LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...NAMELY WITH
HANDLING OF THE GULF LOW ON THURSDAY. GFS IS BY FAR THE DEEPEST
SOLUTION...BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS ABOUT 10 MILLIBARS WEAKER. PREFER THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS THE
MOST CONSISTENCY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN THE
SHORT-TERM. ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND
60 HOURS...SO WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...SHORT-WAVES WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
UPPER LOW DROPS FROM THE BERING STRAIT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE GULF THURSDAY. SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF
WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS BUT IT WILL BE SHORTER LIVED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE COLD
UPPER CORE MOVES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
DESTABILIZE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE KILBUCK AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME DRYING
LATE THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND FLOW BACKS TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL THEN BE
SHORT-WAVE ROTATING IN FROM THE EAST. BASED ON CURRENT TRACK OF
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO COPPER BASIN WILL REMAIN
WET INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE COOK INLET REGION LOOKS DRY FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE WEAK LOW/SHORT-WAVE SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK RIGHT ALONG THE ALEUTIANS (OVER TOP OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE) TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC FRIDAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE RAIN AND FOG. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CURRENT COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ASHFALL ADVISORY 185.
MARINE...ASHFALL ADVISORY 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 08