Gale Warning 494, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 172208 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
145 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

UPDATED ZONE 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THU.
A 1009 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF SOLDOTNA WILL MOVE TO 50 NM EAST OF
SEWARD THU NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE FRI. AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE 
NEAR ELFIN COVE FRI NIGHT AT 1000 MB.
$$

PKZ120-180200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-180200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
145 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
E OF BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
635 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-180200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
145 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH END OF INLET...SOUTHWEST WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY NOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-180200-
KACHEMAK BAY
145 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180210 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

UPDATED HEADLINE ZONE 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS   
THE EASTERN GULF THU NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW NEAR SEWARD WILL SLOWLY
TRACK INLAND THU NIGHT AND FRI. A 1001 MB LOW WILL FORM 150 NM 
EAST OF KODIAK CITY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-181400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT OR LES. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-181400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW OF BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. E OF BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH END OF THE INLET...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING 
BECOMING 10 KT. SEAS TO 7 FT. RAIN. ELSEWHERE...SW WIND 15 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT.  
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE OCCLUDED
LOW SPINNING NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE KUSKOKWIM COAST. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO JUST WEST
OF ANCHORAGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF. FRONTAL PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE MAINLAND HAS SLOWED DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A VERY WEAK
TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. A
STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND THEN BENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF. JET DYNAMICS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO A SOLID BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ARE ALSO
HELPING TO INDUCE SHOWERS. RAIN TOTALS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE RANGED FROM ABOUT ONE HALF INCH TO JUST OVER
ONE INCH. SOME STREAMS HAVE RISEN FAST WITH THIS RAIN BUT CONDITIONS
STARTED OUT FAIRLY LOW SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS
POINT. A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. STRONGER WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF
ALEUTIANS...SO ONLY IMPACT IS RAIN AND FOG.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WEAK WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THE WESTERN ALASKA LOW. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A PRESSURE AROUND 995MB WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AROUND
999MB. MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING MOVEMENT OF WESTERN
ALEUTIAN LOW DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW IS WEAK AND
EXPECTED TRACK IS EAST-SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
ALEUTIANS...THIS WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN THE MID TO LONG TERM THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED DUE TO BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE
GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...MODELS INDICATE TRIPLE POINT LOW JUST OFF THE KENAI
PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ALSO FORM OVERHEAD TONIGHT. UPPER SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...RAIN WILL
HANG IN FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW BACK OVER WESTERN
ALASKA TRANSITIONS INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMPLEX WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SHOWERY PATTERN. BY SUNDAY ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALASKA PENINSULA...THE WESTERN ALASKA LOW WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVELS OPEN TO A TROUGH AND SWING INTO
THE GULF. RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM WET WEATHER A A TRANSIENT
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...BUT NEXT TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS FRIDAY MORNING TO CLEAR OUT ALL
OF THE RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND HOLD IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...THE
ALEUTIANS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A CLOSED LOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ASHFALL ADVISORY 185.
MARINE...ASHFALL ADVISORY 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 08