Gale Warning 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 112330
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 55N 180 WILL MOVE TO 60N 166W FRI AFTERNOON AND
THEN TO 65N 166W SAT NIGHT AT 1003 MB. A 1000 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 61N
178E SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWING SAME GENERAL PICTURE BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO AFFECT THE FORECAST. THE BEST PERFORMER AS FAR
A CONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS IS THE GFS. IT ALSO HAS A VERY REASONABLE
SOLUTION SO IT WILL BE THE ONE MOST HEAVILY RELIED ON OVERALL. WHERE
THE NAM IS DOING BETTER IN THE SHORT TERM IS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE NAM BUT ALMOST IGNORED BY THE GFS. BOTH MODELS HAVE IT HEADING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF SO THE ONLY AREA IN THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED IS THE MARINE OFFSHORE AREA. OTHER THAN THAT
THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE BETTER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A SHARP TROUGH DESCENDING OUT OF IT INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT RUNS
INTO THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN EASTERN RUSSIA INTO NEXT
WEEK KEEPING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE AND TO THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE SAME AREA FOR FRIDAY AS WELL BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE TOMORROW.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SE SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MIGRATING ACROSS THE BERING BUT NOT
MAKING IT INLAND. SIMILAR FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE NOSING
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 08