Gale Warning 472, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 121123
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA FRIDAY. A 993 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-130200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED JUN 11 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO BE PERFORMING VERY WELL TODAY.
EVEN OUT TO 120 HOURS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE EXACT SAME PATTERN
WITH JUST A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING OF THE DOMINANT LOW AND
HIGH AT THAT TIME. ONLY OTHER DIFFERENCE WORTH MENTIONING IS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE GFS HAT THE LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SEEMS TO FAVOR THE GFS POSITIONING SO THAT WILL BE THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION AT THAT TIME IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DRIVING FORCE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTON SOUND. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND WHERE IT IS
DEVELOPING A CUT OF LOW. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL HEAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE IT WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN A WEAK LOW IN
THE GULF BUT THIS SYSTEM SILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT OF THE WEATHER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH
TO KODIAK ISLAND ON FRIDAY AND THEN GO EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF IN
BASICALLY THE SAME TRACK AS THE CUT OF LOW.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST BY SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN BE DIMINISHING. EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY IN THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THERE SHOULD BE NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WEEKEND STILL LOOKING REASONABLY GOOD FOR THE
MAINLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BY THAT TIME. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AS WELL AS SOME IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 08