Gale Warning 465, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER ON A SOLUTION THAN ON
PREVIOUS RUNS, THOUGH THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE OVER
WESTERN DOMAIN DURING THE EARLY PERIODS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE
EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FOR LONGER RANGE FORECASTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY. AREAS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAVE
CLEARED OUT IN THE MORNING BUT WILL BECOME AREAS FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA
IS STILL DROPPING RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL
ALASKA AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH INCREASING SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN.

THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ITS VORTICITY MAX WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY A LITTLE LONGER THAN FIRST THOUGH. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME SHOWER TUESDAY.

A LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE 160 MILES
EAST OF ATTU MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 100 MILES
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN CANADA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. SKIES
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JUN 08