Gale Warning 455, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 231130
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF FALSE PASS EARLY THIS MORNING CROSSES 
FALSE PASS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 989 MB 90
NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL FRI NIGHT...AND FURTHER WEAKENS TO 999 MB AS 
IT MOVES TO NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-240200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-240200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-240200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-240200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-240200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-240200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE REMAINS THE NORTH PACIFIC STORM SUPPORTED BY THE
DEEP STRONG UPPER LOW AND TROUGH FROM THE BERING SEA SOUTH INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE JET HAS DIMINISHED TO AROUND 150 KT FROM 200 KT
YESTERDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE INCOMING NORTH
PACIFIC STORM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE WEAK LOW THAT WAS OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS HAS DISSIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTH
AND EXTENDS ALONG THE YUKON RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
ANCHORAGE AOR THIS EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS IMPROVED FR THE GFS AND THE MODELS ARE IN
VRY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THE GFS ECMWF AND UKMET
STAY IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AFTER FRI AFTERNOON AND THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER HOLDING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO A SLOWER AND MORE WEST SOLUTION HOWEVER
THE LATEST NAM HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AT THIS POINT
WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF THE GFS UKMET AND
ECMWF. AFTER SATURDAY THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ESTABLISHING OF A LARGE HIGH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THAT SHOULD HOLD OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT THE MOIST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL REGION BY FRI MORNING. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM FRI FOLOWED BY PERSISTING SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INTO
SAT. EXPECT EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE GULF TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM.

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA
SOUTHWEST TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE EAST SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.
WE HAVE UPPED THE WIND FORECASTS TO STORM FORCE ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AS THE NORTH PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH.

STRONG GAP WIND ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE THE TYPICAL
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM WIND. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND AND THE INTERIOR TROUGH SETS UP THE COMBINATION OF THE
INTERIOR TROUGH AND BUILDING HIGH IN THE GULF WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY
SOUTH WIND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER LATE FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
GUSTY EAST WIND WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STRONG STORM MOVES INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO START ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TO THE UP SLOPE
REGIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THE DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE PERSISTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD
THE COOL MOIST CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE BERING SEA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW MOVING TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FALSE PASS AREA FRI MORNING THEN WEAKEN
AS IT SLOWS DOWN MOVING NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS STORM IS
PUSHING COOL LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
IN THE PRIBILOFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE LARGE
PACIFIC HIGH IN THE GULF TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 155 150. GALE 130 132 138 160 165 170 180 351 352
         414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM MAY 08