Gale Warning 447, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 200629 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1030 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

UPDATED ZONE 155

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEAK LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. A 1000
MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 995 MB TUE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN ELONGATE
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKEN WED.
$$

PKZ150-201400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-201400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
1030 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-201400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-201400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-201400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-201400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR. N WIND 30 KT WEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-201400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ172-201400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. N WIND 20 KT BECOMING
NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SEGUAM ISLAND EAST. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-201400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-201400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-201400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.   

$$

PKZ179-201400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 201147
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL WEAKEN TO 1014 MB AND
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TO 70 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-210200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-210200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-210200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-210200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-210200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 19 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE FIRST 60 TO 72
HOURS. NO LARGE DIFFERENCES UP THROUGH THEN. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS OF SOME CONCERN SINCE THE ECMWF IS
NOT DOING THIS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ALSO VERY INCONSISTENT BETWEEN
RUNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND DOES NOT GIVE MUCH OF AN ALTERNATIVE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL KEEP FORECASTS GENERALLY THE SAME FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD WHICH IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN OF THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING UNDER THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY AND THEN ELONGATE THROUGH BRISTOL
BAY AND CONNECT WITH A THERMAL TROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE INTERIOR. THIS
WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AS WELL AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN AT THAT TIME.
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA COMBINED WITH A LOW NEAR THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS IS CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST THE IS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS STRONGER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND IS CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. IT IS OVER RIDING THE
SEA BREEZE EFFECT TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY AS EVIDENCED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS AREA
ALONG WITH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS STATED ABOVE
THESE AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH AND SOME TOMORROW. THE DECREASE IN PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMAL SEA BREEZES TO KICK IN TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER OR THEMSELVES LATE
IN THE WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE GFS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON A LOW
MOVING TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA/KODIAK AREA FRIDAY BUT THE GFS LOOKS
LIKE IT IS TOO STRONG AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP WATCHING THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS AND SEE IF A BETTER FEEL FOR THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
ASCERTAINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 08