Gale Warning 443, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 132304
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 964 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL BE A 970 MB LOW 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WED MORNING THEN MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GORE POINT THU
MORNING. A 978 MB LOW 60 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO 991 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 180 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-141400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE WIND 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-141400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-141400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-141400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-141400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-141400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-141400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-141400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
HE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND DONT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAJOR FALL LIKE STORM NOW PUSHING A FRONT INLAND ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF ALASKA HAS GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE FRONT AS EVIDENCED
BY THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND RAIN ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CHUGACH EVEN WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE RIDGING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING FRONT IS ACCELERATING THE WIND. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND
ALASKA RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS SCENARIO
IS THE SOUTH TO EAST WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE NORTHEAST END OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ALONG
WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HOWEVER KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. INLAND OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE THE STRONG DOWN SLOPE IS DRYING CONDITIONS AND WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MCGRATH AREA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

THE NEXT LARGE LOW IS ON TAP TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
ALASKA WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM MOST LIKELY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
STRONG WIND AND AREAS OF RAIN THE THE GULF COAST AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW IS CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SPLITTING TO TWO
CENTERS WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AS A
WEAKER LOW MOVES ALONG THE BERING COAST TO THE DELTA LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THE
DOWNSLOPE DIMINISHES AND THUS ALLOWS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE EXPECTATION OF MORE RAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL STAY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND THE TYPICALLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FLOW PATTERN. THE COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PRIBILOFS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY SNOW OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SAM MAY 08