Gale Warning 385, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 150040 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 165

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1008 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AT 1005 MB THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL SPREAD IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WED.

$$

PKZ150-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-151400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT OR LESS. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-151400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-151400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. WIND BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT BERING
SIDE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-151400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-151400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING N WIND 35 KT
BY LATE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG IN THE EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 151158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY.
$$

PKZ150-160200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-160200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-160200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.

.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-160200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO N 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-160200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-160200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-160200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-160200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-160200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-160200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-160200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT.  
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-160200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
630 AM ADT MON APR 14 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS A RESULT OF THE POLAR JET FLOWING AT
160 KT FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THEN
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A
DISTINCT POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG A
LINE FROM BETHEL TO MCGRATH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S.
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF MAJOR FEATURES...HAVE NOTICED
SOME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS THAT WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO
CONSIDERATION. FIRST...BETHELS MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES A MAX WIND
SPEED OF 166 KT. BOTH GFS AND NAM PEAK AT APPROX 140 KT AT 12Z. ALSO
BELIEVE THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH ARE OFF...BOTH MODELS ARE A BIT
SLOW AS THE COLD AIR IS ARRIVING IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FASTER AND
WITH MORE VIGOR THAN ADVERTISED.

WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE MADE IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN MODELS HAD
INDICATED. A LAYER OF WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PROVIDED AREAS
FROM ANCHORAGE UP TO TALKEETNA WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE KODIAK ENJOYED 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NUDGED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS...HAD TO
MANIPULATE THE FINAL PRODUCT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DISCREPANCIES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE MOST LIKELY
CULPRIT FOR THE UNEXPECTED WINTRY MIX EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
BRIEFLY SHIFTED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST IN ANCHORAGE ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WHILE WARM AIR JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING. A PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW HIT ANCHORAGE BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS RETURNED AND A RAIN SNOW MIX RESUMED. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL
FALLING ACROSS THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS BUT WILL END SOON AS
THE TROF ROTATES EAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ENTERS THE PICTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND MOVES NEAR YAKUTAT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
HELP USHER IN THE REST OF THE COLD AIR. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE LADEN ALTHOUGH THE SPEED AT WHICH IT TRAVERSES
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HELP MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS ACROSS THE MOST POPULATED AREAS. AT THIS POINT...FEEL CONFIDENT
THAT ANCHORAGE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BUT WILL NOT ADD UP TO
MUCH. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT AGAIN...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW QUIKCLY USHERS THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR
DOMAIN.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG GAP WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROF. STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS IS CERTAIN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. OTHER AREAS PRONE TO STRONG WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
LIKE RESURRECTION BAY AND PASSAGE CANAL WILL CERTAINLY REACH GALE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THERE IS AN INITIAL PUSH OF
COLD AIR AND THEN A MUCH STRONGER REINFORCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 40 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR FREEZING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY DROPPING FROM THE 30S TO THE 2OS AND TEENS. THE INITIAL FRONT
MAY STALL A BIT TODAY UNTIL THE TROF CATCHES UP AND HELPS PUSH IT
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME
CHALLENGES TO THE TAFS TODAY AS IFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
SAME STORY OUT WEST WITH FROPA TODAY AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT
AND QUICKLY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM FORCE LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 165 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 08