Gale Warning 379, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU APR 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE MODEL HAVE ALL LATCHED ON TO THE SAME SOLUTIONS.
SOME DIFFERENCE ARE STILL APPARENT, ESPECIALLY AS THE NEXT LARGE
STORM APPROACHES THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON SATURDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A UPPER SHORT WAVE
OVER OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FOLLOWING THE OLD UPPER
LOW TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA STILL SLOWLY MOVING EAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE COLD DRY INTO THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST PRODUCED SNOW
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A WEAK LOW, WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE,
REMAIN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ALASKA
SATURDAY. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SATURDAY. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE WEAK LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS
THE MAJOR UPPER SUPPORT MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS OVER THE COPER
RIVER BASIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA
VALLEY TONIGHT.

A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST INTO
HOOPER BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE NEAR BETHEL SATURDAY. SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BECOME SHOWERS SATURDAY.

A LOW NEAR JAPAN WILL MOVE TO 650 MILES WEST OF SHEMYA SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY.
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN CANADA SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
MOVE THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO THE ALASKAN MAINLAND TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE BERING SEA WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 08