Gale Warning 374, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 061158 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 121

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE TO 70 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT MON MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MON AFTERNOON WITH A 1001 MB LOW
MOVING TO 100 MN SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-070200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN 
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN 
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN APR 6 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOWS. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. NAM MAY HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION FOR THE
SHORT TERM SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW POSITION
AND THIS MAY BE DUE TO ITS HIGHER GRID RESOLUTION. LONGER TERM THE
GFS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN NAM OF ECMWF BUT THE PATTERN
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT THIS MAY CHANGE AS WELL SINCE IT IS A
DIFFICULT SITUATION FOR MODELS TO ACCURATELY RESOLVE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE BERING STRAIT WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN COOK INLET AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS ELONGATION IS SIGNIFICANT SINCE MODELS ALL HAVE A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MOVING TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS PUSHING
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA
AND NORTHWARD. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY. IT IS ALSO CAUSING THE MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE OUT OVER
ANCHORAGE AND AREAS NORTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PASSED THROUGH HOMER EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH KENAI AROUND NOON. THIS MOVEMENT WILL STALL SOUTHWEST OF
FIRE ISLAND AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF
SNOWFALL IN THE ANCHORAGE TO MAT-SU VALLEY AREA WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING. AFTER THIS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHES AS THE 500 MB
CUT OF LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLD ADVECTION REACHES THOSE AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THAT THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS VERY LOW FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK SO THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN LONG TERM FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 132 138 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 08