Gale Warning 354, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON APR 14 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC HAS CREATED STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF
TRANSVERSE WAVE CLOUD IN THE LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN INDICATING WINDS
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN TOPS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND TURBULENT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, KENAI PENINSULA AND
BRISTOL BAY APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A MODERATE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING
SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
ITS CENTER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN MAINLAND TUESDAY AND WILL LIE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR
INTO THE STATE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND WILL MERGE WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL MOVE
TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY THEN WILL SWING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IT GETS CUT OFF
BY THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO KODIAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND PROBABLY
ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY TUESDAY.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND THE REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY AND
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCAL STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELING TERRAIN. ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE, KENAI
MOUNTAINS AND THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150, 155, 165, 170, 172, 175, 176,
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 08