Gale Warning 339, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 311902 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

UPDATE TO ZONES 155 AND 165

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
AT 985 MB LOW 330 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY LATE MON NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 100
NM NORTHWEST OF NOME AND WEAKEN TO 993 MB BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. A 987 MB LOW 490 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA BY EARLY 
WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-010200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
1100 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-010200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
1100 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-010200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312346
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND WEAKENS TO 991 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW 280
NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUESDAY EVENING MOVES TO 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT PAUL ISLAND AND INTENSIFIES TO 980 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 KT
IN THE EVENING THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-011400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE EVENING. SE GUSTS TO 40
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 TO 17
FT...HIGHEST BERING SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 TO 15 FT...HIGHEST BERING SIDE. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EAST OF ATKA. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-011400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN MAR 30 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION AND UPPER LEVELS...
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BOTH MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
BERING SEA TONIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING TOMORROW NIGHT QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
SWING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND DISSIPATE AS THE MEAN RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MAINLAND DUE TO THE BERING TROUGHS. THE FIRST
TROUGH TO SLOW DOWN AS IT HITS THE RIDGE TUESDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
TROUGH FEEDS INTO IT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WILL KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MAINLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
ALLOWS A DEEPER COLDER TROUGH TO SETTLER OVER 160-170W DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL CHOICE FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS START TO DIFFER.
THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND THEREFORE MAKES THE TROUGH NEAR 165W MORE PROGRESSIVE.
THE ECMWF THEREFORE LEAVE A STRONGER LOW IN THE BERING STRAIT AND A
MORE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN PLAYS THE SAME WAY BUT IS MUCH MORE BROAD WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BERING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEHAVING THIS WAY AS
WELL. JUST A PROBLEM IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE HIGHER RES
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND LOWER RES ENSEMBLES.

.ANALYSIS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST...
CURRENTLY...A LOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WITH A
FRONT MOVING UP THE WESTERN GULF. PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SWING WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST MONDAY. SNOW ADVISORY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THOUGHT OF SAME SCENARIO IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL GO WITH THIS FOR TONIGHT AS THE TEMPS
NOT CONTINUING TO WARM THAT MUCH IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE KUSKO
VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. THESE FOG CONDITIONS TO
LAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
BERING TONIGHT WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
FRONT ALONG THE WEST COAST CURRENTLY OVER KODIAK AND MOVING UP THE
KENAI PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING AND ALEUTIANS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM
TO WRAP MORE WARM AIR INTO THE BERING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LOW
MOVES PAST ST MATTHEW ISLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE ARCTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW AND PROVIDES SOME
STRONGER GALE FORCE WINDS. IT ALSO WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES FROM THE WESTERN BERING INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION AND
GREAT JET SUPPORT. WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THIS LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT.

WESTERN ALASKA...
A LOW ALONG THE COAST WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE
MAINLAND. THIS SCENARIO PRODUCING PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE YK DELTA AND BRISTOL
BAY AREA. RAIN AND SNOW MIX EVEN INTO THE SOUTHERN KUSKO VALLEY. THE
PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. AS THE LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW PRECIP TO DIMINISH BY NOON
TOMORROW. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TOMORROW KICKING
UP WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND RIDDING THEM OF FOG THAT IS CURRENTLY
THERE. THE FRONT MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN ALASKA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR
THIS ROUND AND EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE KUSKO
VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
WRAPS BEHIND THE LOW.

SOUTH CENTRAL...
A FRONT MOVING UP THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WITH THE LOW BACK NEAR THE
YK DELTA. THIS IS PROVIDING A GOOD EAST WEST GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN AS A
GOOD EAST WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH A SHORT TIME TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BRIEF RESPITE WILL ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION TO WORK INTO THE DOWNSLOPE DRY AREAS FOR A TIME.
PRECIPITATION TO WANE FROM THE WEST MONDAY BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND UP TO THE NORTHERN COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH CENTRAL WILL GO THROUGH THE SAME SCENE AS
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMER WITH MORE AREAS OF RAIN THAN SNOW. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN GENERAL...A LOW WRAPS UP IN THE BERING THURSDAY AND PROGRESSES
INTO THE MAINLAND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION TO BE A MIX AT FIRST BUT BEHIND THE LOW PRECIP WILL
TURN TO ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THROUGH THE MAINLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER EPISODE OF WARM ADVECTION
AND RAIN AND CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE. THE LOW WORKS INTO
THE GULF SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 145 AND 151
MARINE...GALE 155 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN MAR 08