Gale Warning 315, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE MAR 18 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND FORECAST ARE
REASONABLE AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WED NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES OCCUR OVER THE GULF AFTER AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH 00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAINTAINS
CONSISTENCY AND FALLS IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTER. PHASED
INTO THE 12Z GFS RUN STARTING 12Z SAT. THIS SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN EXISTING GRID PACKAGE AND NEW ECMWF.

.UPPER LEVELS...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM LAST DISCUSSION. LOW CENTER OVER THE ARCTIC
MOVES TO THE SW MAINLAND WED AND EVENTUALLY ENDS UP IN THE GULF FRI
NIGHT. LOW CENTER MAINTAINS GENERAL POSITION THROUGH SUN MORNING.
RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN RUSSIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAIRLY
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WED SHOULD DROP
SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AS MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES INTO SW ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST...LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W
TO NW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. EXPECT A GENERAL SHOT AT SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS CENTER TONIGHT AND WED. THIS LOW CENTER
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH WED NIGHT AND THU...HOWEVER NEG TILT TROUGH ALOFT
MAY MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS THRU EARLY THU INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. NEXT LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU
NIGHT...HOWEVER NEW MODEL RUN SLOWS CENTER CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH OLD RUN AND BRING WINDS AND ANOTHER SHOT AT INTO THU NIGHT.
LOW EVENTUALLY DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING IN
SOUTHCENTRAL AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.WEST...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS MUCH BRISTOL BAY...AND AK PEN
TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND COLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN. EXPECT GENERALLY GALES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN...WITH SOME STORM GUSTS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTH.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE AK PEN IS A CONCERN...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH NEW SNOW...SO FEEL THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WINDS IN THESE AREAS TO WEAKEN SOME WED
NIGHT AND THU AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS/AK PEN. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH COLD ADVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD AFTER THIS OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA AND ACCOMPANYING ALEUTIANS/AK
PEN THROUGH FRI. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CLEARING OVER THE SW
MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER TROUGH AND LOW CENTER
DROPPING FROM THE ARCTIC WILL HOLD CLOUDS AND THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR 181 WILL BE CANCELED.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 138 150 155 175 AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08