Gale Warning 218, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 230057
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
A 975 MB LOW 625 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 275 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA SAT NIGHT AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 985 MB LOW 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 3O KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.  
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N WIND 20 KT EAST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT EAST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS LOOK IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ALL THE MODELS KEEP MOVE BOARD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. OUT WEST THE GFS/NAM ARE KEEPING THE LOW
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MUCH DEEPER INTO SUNDAY WHICH IS THE SOLUTION WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING BUT THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE MODELS IS VERY
CLOSE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONG WAVE PATTER SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
MAINLAND. THE UPPER JET REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GULF DISSIPATING BY THIS EVENING. A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM
AS DEEP LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL BEGIN PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS MORNING AND THE OLD FRONT STRETCHED OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG MOST COASTAL AREAS AND
KODIAK TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF SNOW INLAND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR.

FOR SOUTHWEST STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WELL INTO SATURDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THESE AREAS CAUSING SOME
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PENINSULA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AREAS.

THE DEEP LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH AN APPROACHING
STRONG FRONT WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
BEFORE WEAKENING SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. EXPECT MOST INLAND AREAS TO BE DRY AND ANY WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND BERING AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
MARINE...STORMS 176.
         GALES 172 175 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08