Gale Warning 216, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220300 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

CORRECTION TO SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL DIMINISH TO 1002 MB 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK FRI AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE GULF SAT MORNING. A
1000 MB LOW MOVES TO 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-221500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 20 KT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT 5 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-221500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 221210
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
FRIDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE. 

$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU FEB 21 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION AND UPPER LEVELS...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEEMENT TODAY. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS/NAM HAS BEEN
HANDLING THE SYSTEMS TODAY RATHER WELL. THE BIG SYSTEMS ARE ALL
PORTRAYED RATHER WELL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...JUST THE EXACT
POSITIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH FOR A LOW IN THE GULF SUNDAY BUT IS FASTER
WITH A LOW RIDING UP TO KAMCHATKA MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE BERING WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
KODIAK. THE LOW OVER KODIAK TO ROLL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH BECOME
THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURE AS UPPER LOWS REMAIN IN THE WESTERN BERING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH IS PUSHED NORTH TO SIBERIA TUESDAY
ALLOWING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF TO SEND A SHORT WAVE EAST AND
BRING MORE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOES REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING THOUGH.

.ANALYSIS...
LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING.
THIS IS CREATING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA. COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS...SOME LOCAL
AREAS EXPERIENCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ENDING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE TOMORROW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THEREFORE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. A STRONG
FRONT WILL WORK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE MEANTIME WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.

IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
CREATING STRONG WINDS. NOT QUITE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE
STRONG WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIP PATTERN WILL
STRONGLY RESEMBLE A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT OVER THE ANCHORAGE AND PALMER
AREAS DURING THIS EPISODE. THE FRONT TO ROLL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
EARLY TOMORROW WITH PRECIP SPREADING INLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DUE TO THE HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AND LOW OVER KODIAK. COMBINED WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...SOME LOCAL AREAS RECEIVING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE LOW
OVER KODIAK TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE TOMORROW AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. THEREFORE...WINDS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. IN THE
MEANTIME...A LOW WORKS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A STRONG FRONT.
STORM FORCE WINDS TO REACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THIS FRONT. THE
LOW TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE JET WHICH REMAINS
NEAR 40N. THE FRONT ALSO DIMINISHES AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHED PRECIP TO REMAIN WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR. THE FRONT REMAINS
IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER LOW
PUSHES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WORKS TO
ADAK AND THAT IS IT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND LOW OVER KODIAK.
COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS...SOME LOCAL AREAS RECEIVING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKO COAST. THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. ONCE THESE LEAVE THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THEN COLD AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
LOW SITTING OVER KODIAK TODAY WITH A STRONG FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST. STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. THIS IS CREATING A LOW OF AREAS WITH STRONG GAP FLOWS.
PRECIP IS IN A TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH PRECIP SPREADING INLAND. WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AT THIS TIME AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW OVER KODIAK WILL BE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TOMORROW.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA
OTHER THAN SHOWERS IN THE GULF AND NEARBY WESTERN GULF COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS HANDLING THE REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING WELL FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WEATHER TO REACH THE CENTRAL BERING BY MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF AND
BERING AND OUTSIDE OF THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONES 155 AND 181
MARINE...STORM 176
         GALE 120 155 170 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 08