Gale Warning 209, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 201239
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 965 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 50 NM EAST OF
KODIAK AT 972 MB WED NIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE
WEAKENING TO 990 MB THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATER 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1240 PM AST TUE FEB 19 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...ACTIVE STORM TRACK CONTINUES THIS
MORNING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER AN AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN
PATTERN OF TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN U.S./CANADA.

SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TWO DEEP LOWS FOLLOWING THE UPPER FLOW FROM
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A 960 MB
LOW IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM SHELIKOF
STRAIT TO THE BARREN ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF. STRONG GAP WINDS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE
(WARM CLOUD TOPS) ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS IS APPARENT IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION HAS
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL AND IS OVERSPREADING
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MAINLY RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SNOW AS YOU HEAD FARTHER WEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NEXT
LOW IS NOT FAR BEHIND...AT 45N 157W (20Z) WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
APPROACHING 960 MB AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. A DECAYING LOW IS
SPINNING EAST OF ADAK WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT PRODUCING A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 15Z QUIKSCAT WIND
IMAGE SHOWS NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE LOW CENTER WHILE THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL VERY CLOSE. NAM IS ALSO ABOUT 8 MB TOO
WEAK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE JUST A FEW MILLIBARS TOO WEAK.
THEREFORE...PREFER THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE NAM. NAM ALSO APPEARS
TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT IN TRACK OF NEXT LOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL
IN THE VICINITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. THERE IS FAIR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
EXISTING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GREATEST IMPACT OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE WIND. AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE COAST WITH WARNING
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARMS. WHILE THE
LOW TRACK IS REMAINS OVER OR EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND EXPECT STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EAST TURNAGAIN ARM. THEN AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST TURNAGAIN ARM AS A TIGHT EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP.

THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY FALL APART AT THE SURFACE...BUT MOVE INLAND
ALOFT TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHARP PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE TO RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A DAY SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE NEXT STORM WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEW LOW MOVING INTO COASTAL REGIONS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT LOW WILL INITIALLY TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
CURRENT SYSTEM...BUT WILL STALL OUT IN THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION
LATE THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH REFORMS FARTHER EAST AND A RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OUT WEST. THEREFORE...DO NOT LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD
WINDS AND WARMTH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST.
MEANWHILE...NEAR THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES BACK IN.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
PROVIDE LOTS OF MIXING AND KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM.
DRYING WILL OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT AS THE LOW STALLS IN THE BARREN ISLAND REGION THURSDAY
WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION AS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND
THE CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN AT WEEKS END AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING.
COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
SET UP A SHOWERY REGIME.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DECAYING LOW NEAR ATKA WILL FINALLY SINK
SOUTH AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER SHORT-WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WILL CROSS THE BERING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BEHIND IT. COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS SHORT-WAVE RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THURSDAY AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.
CALM WEATHER WILL SET UP UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BERING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATE
THIS WEEK AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD TO THE GULF AND A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. ITS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHETHER THIS NEW PATTERN WILL HANG AROUND FOR A
WHILE OR CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AND EVOLVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101 AND 125.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 129 130 132 139 140 141.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY... 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 08