Gale Warning 163, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST MON FEB 4 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS FROM THE 12Z RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS WERE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS
BUT THIS HAS COME IN LINE ON THE 12Z RUN. GFS IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
FOR THE DAY AND HAS BEEN STABLE AS OF LATE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SURFACE PATTERN IS RATHER
STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA
THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LAST NIGHT
IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A LARGE LOW
SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE JUST SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SHORT TERM FEATURE BEING A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE NORTH GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MOST OF THE ACTION
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE JET STREAM. THE JET IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AROUND 40N AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA FROM PUSHING
INTO THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. ITS TREK NORTHWARD WILL END
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WHERE IT WILL ELONGATE AND FINALLY DISSIPATE IN
THE ABSENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 131
AND  135 WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR IS
IN PLACE AS WELL AS THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. EVEN AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WHILE WEAKENING IS STILL BRINGING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND THE LOW DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.
ALEUTIANS WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SOME SNOW TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH RAIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE MORE COLD AIR FILTERS IN AS THE LOW
ELONGATES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IS THE PATTERN AND THE
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE THERE WILL
NOT BE LARGE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 130 132 155 160 165 171 176 179 185.
         STORM 170 172 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120-141 160 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08