Gale Warning 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 130003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 944 MB LOW NEAR 46N 169W WILL WEAKEN TO 969 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
55N 155W WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU. STRONG NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE 
LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON 
AND THEN DIMINISH WED NIGHT AND THU. 

$$

PKZ411-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  AT 30 HOURS THE NAM RUNS SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON THE
NEXT LOW COMING UP FROM THE GULF BUT THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ARE IN LINE
ON THE LOW POSITION.  THE UKMET AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE ACTUALLY REALLY
CLOSE WHILE THE EC IS ABOUT 10 MB WEAKER ON THE LOW.  IN THE MID
RANGE THE GFS HAS CONFORMED TO THE EC SOLUTION ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW...TAKING IT OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND UP THE COOK INLET.  GIVEN THAT
THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND HAS CONVERGED
WITH THE EC SOLUTION IN THE LONG TERM IT IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THE ALASKA LOW WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
AND BECOME MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE BERING. THE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FAIRLY STRONG IN SPITE OF THE
FACT THAT IT IS ALREADY STACKED.  AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD IT GAINS
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL FEED IT AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
OUT WEST...A SHORT RESPITE THIS MORNING FOR THE WEST COAST AND AK PEN
BEFORE THE NORTH PAC LOW ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE LOW
APPROACHES NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALONG THE AK PEN...THIS WILL CAUSE A BLIZZARD IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE AK PEN AS WELL.  THE BLIZZARD IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE A
FAIRLY LONG ONE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  ALTHOUGH THE SNOW STOPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING AT THE
EARLIEST. EXPECT STORMS IN THE EASTERN MARINES AT LEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS FOR THE WEST COAST...AREAS WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA
RANGE WILL SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING BUT OTHER WISE THE MAINLAND CAN
DEFINITELY EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS EVENT BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE EAST...THE LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLE TO DAY AND AS IT DOES THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  IN SPITE OF SOME BANDING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SMALL AND THE ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT
HAS BEEN DROPPED.  TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...CLEARING SKIES AND POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME FOG LATER
TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN ZONES AND GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIP CAN BE
EXPECTED.  STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND THROUGH THE BARRENS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS LOW ALSO HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH IT AND THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLUSHY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THIS PATTER LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...AFTER THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS WITH IT AGAIN.  THIS NEXT LOW IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TAKE A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK...SO THE
WARM WEDGE WILL AFFECT MORE OF THE MAINLAND.  OVERALL THE LOW IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER HOWEVER SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
ALEUTIANS AND BLIZZARDS WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185
         BLIZZARD WATCH 181
MARINE...STORMS 120 130 170
         GALE 125 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 171 172 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 141 165 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF FEB 08