Gale Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS START AROUND 72 HOURS OUT AND DEAL WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE DIFFERENCES CAN BE
SUMMED UP BY THE GFS AND NAM ARE MOVING THE LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY. AFTER CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS THE GFS IS FAVORED DUE TO THE WAY IT
FITS BETTER IN CONJUNCTION TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. WITH A STRONG
LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY A MORE EASTERLY
POSITIONING OF A LOW IS PREFERRED. IN ADDITION TO THE THE GS HAS BEEN
STABLE WITH ITS SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW RUNS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISIT OVER THE
ALASK INTERIOR AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST ALSO PERSISTS AND IS CAUSING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE JET STREAM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL REMAIN SO
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTH GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR AND TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHER WINDS AREAS SUCH AS THE MATANUSKA RIVER VALLEY WILL
ALSO REMAIN WINDY INTO THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE AREA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE RIDGE IN THE
NORTHERN BERING SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STIFF EASTERLY WINDS..AND
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW ON SAINT GEORGE ISLAND.
STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO WILL CONTINUE
IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WIND CHILL READINGS GET DOWN TO 40 BELOW OR
COLDER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND KODIAK ISLAND WHERE THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR AND CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 165 170 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 - 141 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08