Gale Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE POINT OF BEING DECENT
FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT THE GFS LOOKS TO DO THE BEST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM DOES NOT DO TERRIBLY BAD BUT PREFER THE GFS
SOLUTION TO HOW THE LOWS MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. DO NOT LIKE
THE UKMET OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS AT ALL. GFS IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH.
THE DYNAMICS REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE JET STREAM CAN BE SEEN
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE 40N PARALLEL ON THE IR SATELLITE.
THE ENERGY FROM THE JET IS NOW SUPPORTING THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR LEAVING THE LOW WEST OF ATTU WITHOUT UPPER SUPPORT. THE LOW
WEST OF ATTU WILL THEREFORE SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...LOW COMING UP ON THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING SOME SNOW MIXED WITH A LITTLE RAIN TO
THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. KODIAK SHOULD DEVELOP SNOW
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL
NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN KODIAK.

FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND COOK INLET. COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS FOG IN THE COOK INLET AREA TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT DOWN
THE INLET HAS INCREASED A LITTLE. NORTH GULF COAST REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE JET STREAM WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 165 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08