Brisk Wind Advisory 56, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60
HOURS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GULF LOW EVEN BEFORE THAT
TIME BUT IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS. THE WEAK LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA ALSO IS A SUBJECT OF DISAGREEMENT BUT
IT IS VERY WEAK AND WILL ONLY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE BERING SEA
AND PRIBILOF FORECASTS. THE GFS HAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION ON THIS
FEATURE. OVERALL PREFER THE GFS DUE TO ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AND
STABILITY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED THE HEAVY SNOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA YESTERDAY IS NOW BEING PUSHED BACK WESTWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AS A LOW IN THE GULF STRENGTHENS AND TURNS THE FLOW
EASTERLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT HAS
PUSHED TO THE WEST OF THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES AND WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF THOSE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER IT AND THAT WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE DOWNSLOPE PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY AS THE PRECIPITATION HAS
NOW PUSHED ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN.
SNOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL
BAY AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME
THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL MODERATE SOME FROM WHERE
THEY ARE NOW. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 138 150 155 160 165.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 155 160 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 08