Brisk Wind Advisory 53, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 212353
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH A 999 MB
LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING WED.

$$

PKZ150-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-221400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   

$$

PKZ180-221400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT.  
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ171-221400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.  
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT.  
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-221400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON APR 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN APR 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER BOTH MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. THEY ARE ALL MOVING THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ALASKA WEST TOWARD BRISTOL BAY
TUE NIGHT AND ARE MERGING THE BERING SEA LOW INTO THE LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MOVING THE COMBINED SYSTEM EASTWARD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
300 MB JET STREAM LIES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PATTERN REFLECTS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WITH A NEAR
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GULF AND A LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND EASTERN BERING SEA
HAD CREATED GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA BUT A FEW AREAS OF SHOWER HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN KODIAK
ISLAND DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE CENTRAL MAINLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST TOWARD BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY.
SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

OUT OVER THE BERING SEA...THE COMPLEX LOW OVER THE BERING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AS THE NORTHERN LOBE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEAKENS FASTER
THAN THE SOUTHERN LOBE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN LOW WILL BECOME EARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE BERING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ALCAN BORDER FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SIBERIA WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY FRIDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 08