Brisk Wind Advisory 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU MAR 27 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOWS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...OVER EASTERN RUSSIA...OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A JET MAX OVER
SIBERIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BERING...WHILE
A SECOND JET MAX IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...LOWS
ARE SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY DEPICTING THE EFFECTS OF THE JET
MAX DIVING INTO THE BERING LATE THU INTO FRI. SOLUTIONS RANGE FORM A
SINGLE LOW REMAINING NEAR THE CHAIN...TO A DOUBLE LOW WITH ONE SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN AND ONE NEAR THE PRIBILOFS.  THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE
12Z WED GFS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS. IN THE EAST...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAK TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHEMYA LOW WILL BRING SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL REACH THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND AKPEN FRI AND WILL
CONTINUE SAT AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE SECOND LOW WILL PROVIDE BRIEF DRYING BEFORE
YET ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT BRING RAIN TO THE CHAIN SUN INTO MON. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL THE WESTERN ISLANDS MON AND
BRING SNOW SHOWERS.

OVER SW AK...BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS BENEATH A RIDGE THAT PERSISTS INTO SAT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERING-ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER
SAT INTO SUN. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN DRIES THE AREA LATE SUN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS MON.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE KENAI WILL PERSIST INTO SAT. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING-ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
SUN CHANGING TO RAIN MON...MAINLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS INTO MID WEEK.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AK FOR THE SAME
PERIOD...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND THROUGH WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 170 172
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 150 155 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 08