Brisk Wind Advisory 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED MAR 19 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE. MODEL
FORECAST SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER WESTERN
ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA THROUGH EARLY SAT. SOLUTIONS IN THE
EAST...PARTICULARITY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA VERY GREATLY BEYOND 48
HOURS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY IS LOW...SO WILL MAKE FEW
CHANGES BEYOND 48 HOURS.

.UPPER LEVELS...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR FORECAST EXPECTED. MORNING RADIOSONDE
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER OVER WESTERN ALASKA THIS
MORNING. GENERAL CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRI NIGHT/SAT AND HOLD IN THAT REGION THROUGH EARLY MON. TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AROUND THE MAIN VORTEX IN THE GULF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE FORECAST SOLUTIONS. MAIN
POSITION OF THE NW JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN THROUGH SUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...SNOW SHOWERS TRAINING INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WHITTIER THROUGH PORTAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW BAND LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD SHIFT NORTH SOME
TONIGHT OVER THE GLACIERS TO THE NORTH. LOW CENTER SOUTH OF WHITTIER
WILL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THU. MOVEMENT OF THE LOW COMPLEX ENTERING
THE NORTHERN GULF IS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW ALONG THE COASTAL GULF...LESS SO OVER INLAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALES IN ADVANCE OF LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE GULF
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE COASTAL MARINES THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.WEST...BRISK WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND ACCOMPANYING ALEUTIANS/AK PEN WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
SAT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGIONAL. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN WITH BRISK NW FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LITTLE CHANGE IN PUBLISHED GRIDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 150 155 175 AND 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 138 150 155 179 AND 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08