Brisk Wind Advisory 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT MAR 1 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PERSISTS OVER EASTERN RUSSIA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW
LIES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 N AND EXTENDS FROM JAPAN TO SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE
BARREN ISLANDS...WITH A PAIR OF LOWS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE STATE AND MOST
OF THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE LOW OVER THE BARRENS
DISSIPATES LATER TODAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN
AK AND INTO THE BERING TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TWO LOWS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS MIGRATE TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
DISSIPATE SUN. THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW REACHES THE THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO AREAS AWAY FROM THE ICE EDGE...THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PRIBILOFS CAN EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN WINDBLOWN SNOW. AFTER
A BREAK SUN NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK...WITH SNOW IN THE WEST AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES TO THE BERING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BLEED ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AS PORTIONS OF THE DOUBLE LOW MOVE TOWARD BRISTOL BAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AS THE LOW DISSIPATES
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM. DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...A FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST WILL BRING COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUN MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH WILL REACH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OTHERWISE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REACH INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE TALKEETNAS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
BENEATH A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH EARLY MON WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.
THIS AGAIN WILL BRING MAINLY COASTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MON
EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SNOW SHOWERS.
OVER SW AK...FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE ON TUE WILL END SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A DRY RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. EAST OF
THE AK RANGE... YET ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE FRONTS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE
AREA THIS WEEK...AND MEANS INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO RECEIVE
MOISTURE...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131 195
MARINE...GALES 130 140 150 160 170 172 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 141 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 08