Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY
BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS.

MSAS SHOWS STRONG/DEEP SFC LOW LOCATED IN SC NEB. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SFC LOW. 12Z NAM12/GFS SHOW
SFC LOW LIFTING JUST TO THE EAST...WITH RESULT BEING MAJORITY OF
CWA GETTING PLACED IN THE COLD SECTOR. THE LATEST RUC/INTERNET
BASED 20KM WRF SHOW THE SFC LOW INSTEAD LIFTING DUE NORTH...WITH
MUCH OF THE ERN CWA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTORED. NOT SURE THAT
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO ERN CWA...BUT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT 85H FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH RESULTANT
ELEVATED CONVECTION A GOOD BET. SEVERE PARAM ON SPC HOMEPAGE SHOWS
THAT MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC FCSTD
SOUNDINGS FOR KABR/KATY...LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING LEVELS
AOA 14K AGL...VERY HEAVY RAIN MORE A THREAT COMPARED TO
HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STONES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS LATER THIS EVENING. BOTH NAM/RUC
SHOW 85H-7H SPEC HUMIDITES INCREASING TO 10-11 G/KG MOISTURE BY
03Z FRIDAY...WITH AREAS OF STRONGER 85H-7H FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS WELL. HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
COUNTIES INCLUDING AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...DUE TO THE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS.

FUTHER WEST...STRONG TROWEL FEATURE ADVERTISED TO SET UP ACROSS MO
RIVER BASIN..ESPECIALLY IN THE KPIR AREA. THIS AREA RECEIVED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A FEW DAYS AGO...WITH EM REPORTING VERY
SATURATED GROUND AND STANDING WATER STILL IN PLACE. 18Z RUC RUN
ACCUMS FOR PCPN SHOW 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR FAR SW CWA. GIVEN
7H/85H TROWEL FEATURES...COUPLED WITH NAM SHOWING VERY STRONG NET
ISEN OMEGA INCREASING ACROSS THE SW AT THE 305K LAYER ALONG WITH
8-12G/KG MOISTURE ADVECTION...HAVE UPGRADED FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
STRATUS SHIELD REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WEAK CAA
TAKING PLACE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A GENERALIZED CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
PATTERN...DEPICTED BY WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUING TO EJECT
SHORTWAVES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND LACK OF
SURFACE FEATURE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY US OUT...SO FIND IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THAT ARE IN THERE NOW.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
DUE TO PERSISTENT SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BREAK IN THE ACTION SO FAR WITH RAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH...HOWEVER FORECAST CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MVFR/IFT CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHLY VARIABLE VISBY...MAINLY DUE TO LOW STRATUS/BR AS WELL AS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND DESPITE CIGS REMAINING MVFR/IFR...VISBY
WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-061645-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO LIKELY...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-061645-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008 /1045 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-061645-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008 /1045 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
243 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             10 NW IONA              43.65N 99.57W
06/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       LYMAN              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
306 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 SE RELIANCE           43.86N 99.57W
06/05/2008  E0.88 INCH       LYMAN              SD   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

FOWLE