Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN
WYOMING/NORTHERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DROPS
SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF IT AND
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN SITUATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CWA THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE AND THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR HAVE QUICKLY
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND BROADEN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...PUSHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS...WHICH SHOULD CORRELATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN MODELS OVER HANDLING OF CUT OFF UPPER
LOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND UNDER UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...ARE LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR SATURDAY...WITH REST OF CWA SEEING AROUND
CLIMO. NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION TILL LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW
REINTEGRATES WITH MAIN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO WEST COAST TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KPIR AND
KABR WILL BE THE MAIN SITES AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS WITH THE STORMS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 4K
AND 6K FEET...BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN ABOVE 10K FEET. BRIEF
MODERATE RAINFALL AND AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE ARE
POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-150915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
405 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008 /305 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NONE OF THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NONE OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

SDZ006>008-011-017>019-036-037-051-142215-
BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-HYDE-HAND-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...
WEBSTER...FAULKTON...REDFIELD...CLARK...HIGHMORE...MILLER...
FORT THOMPSON
404 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

...WEAK FUNNELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR FUNNELS HAVE FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE NOT ALWAYS ASSOCIATED
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEY ARE FORMED BY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS WHEN UNIQUE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS EXIST.

WEAK FUNNELS GENERALLY DO NOT REACH THE GROUND AND ARE USUALLY SHORT
LIVED. THEY HAVE...HOWEVER...ON RARE OCCASION TOUCHED THE GROUND
AND CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
419 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             NORBECK                 45.19N 99.21W
08/14/2008  E1.75 INCH       FAULK              SD   PUBLIC

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
440 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             8 W HECLA               45.88N 98.32W
08/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FELL OFF AND ON FOR AN HOUR...MOST OF THE HAIL WAS
            SMALL BUT THE LARGEST WAS UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

&&

TDK

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