Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THIS AREA. WITH SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND DECENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A JET STREAK NOSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT
TSRAS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PROBLEM FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WILL BE
THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR COMING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME MODELS HAVE A CUTOFF IN THE
QPF ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHILE SOME PUSH MORE QPF INTO
THIS AREA. KEPT WITH THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MAY HAVE TO DROP THEM SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA LATER. AFTER
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...ANOTHER STRONGER CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM
THE WEST MOVES ACROSS MT AND ND LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER TONIGHTS RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM AND THEN BREAK UP QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT TROUGH.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH CHANCES OF TSRAS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THEN ALL OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OUT WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG SYSTEM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES OF SHRAS/TSRAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN INTENSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SHEAR ARE ALL LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. CLOSER TO HOME...BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND CAA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY TO GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. A SIMILAR
STORM SYSTEM LOOKS IMPACT THE REGION...AGAIN...AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...AND NEAR NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS PER WSR-88D. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE EAST...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG EARLY THIS EVENING AND KABR AND
KATY BY THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORM MAY BECOME SEVERE. BEHIND
THIS STORM SYSTEM...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMBG AND
KPIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

MNZ046-SDZ003>006-008>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-031345-
BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-ROBERTS-WALWORTH-
EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-
DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
833 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008 /733 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WHERE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MNZ039-SDZ007-031345-
TRAVERSE-MARSHALL-
833 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DORN/MOHR

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