Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CHARTS SHOWING RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED ON SAN FRANCISCO BAY
WITH CIRCULATION FUNNELING SPEEDY NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AGAINST LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSONS BAY IN
NORTHERN CANADA TO THE EAST TEXAS GULF OF COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION SUPPORT FOR A WINDY WRAP UP TO THE WEEKEND IN NEW
MEXICO AS TEMPERATURES RETURN ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.

MODELS...SHOWING SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AGREEMENT THIS ROUND...WITH GFS
SLIDING TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES...AND NAM
RUNNING A LITTLE SHALLOWER WITH FEATURES IN GENERAL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. REASONABLE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FLATTENS RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LOSES LITTLE
AMPLITUDE AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ARRIVES ONSHORE OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER
ESTUARY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...THEN DIGS RAPIDLY
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TROUGH BASE
ROUNDING OFF AS IT STARTS EASTWARD TREK...TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL
AMPLIFY RAPIDLY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY WITH CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF THE BAJA
WEST COAST...AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR SPILL INTO THE NORTHEAST END OF
THE STATE AS THE WORK WEEK WINDS UP. CLOSED LOW WILL CUT OFF BY
THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHWEST FLOW CUTS THROUGH THE NECK OF THE
TROUGH AND RETURNS OVERHEAD IN NEW MEXICO.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL COMBINE WITH 100 KT
SOUTHBOUND JET ALOFT TO SET UP WINDY SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
VICINITY OF TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WILL ISSUE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR CORNERS...THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS ADDED IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO
35 MPH DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON.

INTO MONDAY...FLATTENING RIDGE WILL MANAGE TO WORK EAST OVER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF ALOFT. CONTINUED
WARMING TREND WILL MOVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST
SPOTS FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER.

INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS ALOFT INCREASING RAPIDLY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARRIVES NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SET UP ANOTHER WINDY
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDIEST WINDS MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER...ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW OFF WEST COAST OF
BAJA PENINSULA WILL CUT OFF LATE THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDY NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERAL QUICK
HITTER DISTURBANCES ARE LINED UP TO CROSS THE COLORADO LINE AND
CRUISE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO EXIT INTO TEXAS NEAR
INTERSTATE 40...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY ON
THE COLORADO BORDER...AND SHOOTS THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH QUICK
BLAST OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS WILL OBSCURE A FEW MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. BY THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
PICK UP WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT NEAR THE SAN JUAN
BASIN...CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ESTANCIA VALLEY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT HIGHLY LIKELY TODAY...A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUALLY PUSH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN BRISK NORTH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW 30 TO 40KT WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF SOME CENTRAL TO WESTERN LOCALES. HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP AT
30 PERCENT OR HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHILE A FEW LOCALES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS DIP TOWARD 20 PERCENT...AND THUS NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY WITH POOR VENTILATION DEVELOPING IN
MANY CENTRAL TO WESTERN AREAS.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL HOLD ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
LOW HUMIDITIES...WHICH WOULD GIVE WAY TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO INVADE THE EASTERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RATHER
REPETITIVE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN TAKING SHAPE INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  49  25  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  50  18  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  52  22  57  22 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  63  28  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  40  13  46  16 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  25  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  35  12  41  18 /  20  10   0   0
TAOS............................  44  12  48  17 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  46  24  50  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  48  25  52  27 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  52  19  56  22 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  54  32  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  28  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  61  28  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  22  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  24  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  55  28  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  51  26  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  46  18  54  22 /  20  10   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  24  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  47  26  57  34 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  26  58  36 /  20   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  56  28  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  55  27  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  26  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  54  30  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  56  28  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  60  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-002-008-010-011.

&&

SHY/52

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