Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
238 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFT SHOWS JUICY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE LAPS CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
2500-3500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES NEAR -4C. UPPER SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NE AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THIS EVENING. 12Z GFS INIT ONCE AGAIN POORLY
HANDLING SFC MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LEAN TOWARD
12Z NAM SOLN WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST RUC/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY MINOR FORECAST
CHANGES.

EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE NE PLAINS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER
ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WITH BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE AREA FROM CLAYTON TO
TUCUMCARI TO CLOVIS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NE PLAINS WHERE
09Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH EXCEED 30 PERCENT
WITH GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH AT 100 PERCENT. CONVECTION IN THE EAST
WILL RESULT IN A MODEST CANYON WIND AT KABQ LATE THIS EVENING. SPC
INDICATES ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER THE NE.
DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NE
PLAINS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STAYS PUT OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO
THRU AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENCE WILL DOMINATE THE TEMP
FORECAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU FRIDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A TROUGH BROADENS OVER THE PAC NW. THIS RESULTS IN DECREASING POPS
THRU EARLY NEXT.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MVFR AND SHORT DURATION IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CELLS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT PERIOD WHILE WESTERN CELLS
WILL MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE RAIN. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN LATER EVENING.
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF AS THE DRYLINE SURGES BACK TO THE WEST. A SIMILAR
WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF DRIER AND WETTER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE SANGRES WHILE WETTER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. STILL
EXPECTING LAL 2 ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH WESTERN
ACTIVITY AS VERY LITTLE RAIN WOULD RESULT. DUE TO ALL OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST...LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN SURGE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS GAPS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE JEMEZ
MTS ONCE AGAIN. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
MIXES OUT IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...MIX OF WET AND DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WHILE WETTER ACTIVITY PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EAST.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.THIS MOISTURE PUSH COULD MAKE IT TO THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS COULD INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREAWIDE WITH DRIER STORMS FOUND ACROSS THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN. RESIDUAL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FORM THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  97  55  96 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  48  92  46  90 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  49  91  49  91 /   5   5   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  60  97  60  97 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  42  82  43  81 /   5   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  85  57  84 /  10  10  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  40  75  42  72 /   5  20  20  10
TAOS............................  50  88  50  89 /   5  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  58  91  55  90 /  10  10  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  93  57  92 /   5  10  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  56  95  53  95 /   5  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  94  68  96 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  96  64  98 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  92  63  94 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  96  64  97 /   5   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  65  96  65  98 /   5   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  85  51  87 /   5  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  91  54  91 /  10  10  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  95  60  95 /  10  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  54  86  55  86 /  20  20  10   5
RATON...........................  52  89  55  85 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  89  57  86 /  20  20  20  20
ROY.............................  59  89  60  85 /  20  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  62  89  64  84 /  50  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  62  93  63  88 /  20  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  96  67  90 /  50  20  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  95  66  98 /  40  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  63  94  65  95 /  60   5  20  10
PORTALES........................  64  95  64  97 /  60   5  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  98  69 104 /  30   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

NMZ001>004-008>011-014>017-026-181200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
548 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 OR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 OR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING.

WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

NMZ005>007-012-013-018>021-181200-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
548 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE EAST OF A RATON TO LAS VEGAS TO ROSWELL LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE NORTHEAST OF A RATON TO CLOVIS LINE.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
153 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

NMZ004-005-172030-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
153 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO....STRONG THUNDERSTORM
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...

AT 151 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF RED RIVER.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 33 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL WEST CENTRAL COLFAX
COUNTY AND RURAL EAST CENTRAL TAOS COUNTY.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

19