Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXED OUT OF MOST OF THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING...AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED
INTO THE MID 30S AT LOS ALAMOS AROUND MIDDAY. STILL..50S DEWPOINTS
PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS...AND THIS REGION HAD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE PER MSAS/LAPS.  GFS AND NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW RAPIDLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES OUT LATER TONIGHT...AND INHERITED GRIDS
DON/T REMOVE POPS FROM EASTERN BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY...WHICH IS
REASONABLE BASED ON OBSERVED AND FORECAST DATA.

SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BE SPOTTY IN REGARDS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.  WINDS
ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY...BUT APPEAR TO WEAKEN AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.  THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DISCUSSED BELOW.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK BOUNDARY ALLOWS FOR A TEMPORARY INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE. A SECOND WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST MONDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN MORE LIMITED...THUS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN A TROUGH PASSES OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE DRY LINE GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST.
ACCOMPANYING THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ORIGINATING
FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WETTER
STORMS WILL ERUPT OUT AHEAD OF THIS DRY LINE FEATURE AND PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE FOUND ON THE HEAL OF THESE
STORMS AND WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE LESS HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS
THE SUN SETS.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHING OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY BUT MOST OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RATHER
DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS THAT MID SLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GENERALLY BE POOR. THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE
WINDS WOULD BECOME STRONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED. BEFORE
THEN...OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE NORM FOR LATE MAY OR
EARLY JUNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  84  43  91 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  33  81  34  86 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  35  83  37  88 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  41  91  46  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  29  73  32  77 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  80  48  84 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  27  70  30  74 /   5   0   0   5
TAOS............................  35  77  34  84 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  44  82  45  87 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  45  84  46  87 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  86  41  90 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  55  89  58  92 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  91  50  94 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  86  55  89 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  50  91  52  93 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  53  93  55  94 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  82  46  85 /   5   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  89  48  91 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  91  54  92 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  49  85  50  86 /  20   0   0   0
RATON...........................  42  83  43  88 /  20   0   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  82  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
ROY.............................  53  85  51  86 /  20   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  55  88  53  88 /  20   0   0  10
SANTA ROSA......................  53  92  53  95 /  20   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  95  57  97 /  20   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  57  94  57  96 /  30   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  60  96  57  98 /  30   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  60  96  58  99 /  30   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  62  99  60 101 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101-105-109.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1020 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

NMZ001>021-026-301200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
1020 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES OF NEW
MEXICO...INCLUDING UNION...HARDING...QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR WILDFIRES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             5 S YATES               36.06N 103.90W
05/29/2008  M1.00 INCH       HARDING            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJOJOLA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
339 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

NMZ019-292215-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
339 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 334 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSWELL.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL NORTH CENTRAL
CHAVES COUNTY...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 285.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             15 NW HAYDEN            36.13N 103.44W
05/29/2008  M0.88 INCH       UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJOJOLA

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