Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS PLACEMENT OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE
FETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN THE E PLAINS TONIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE THEREFORE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CONTINUE SPREADING NE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE SLOWLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO GENERAL RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAVE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE SINCE CRITERIA
HAVE BEEN MET IN MANY AREAS.

MODELS THEN SHOW A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE TEXAS STATE LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR DEFINITE
IN THIS AREA IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING TO AN
AREA OF RAIN LATE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH SO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NE PLAINS AND WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS LOOK FURTHER.

MODEL CONTINUE TO DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW FAST THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
EXIT THE REGION. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AT LEAST THE FAR WEST WILL DRY
OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE NE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
THIS AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE ISOLD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT
TIMES. AFTER 06Z TO 08Z SUNDAY...THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WIDESPREAD CIGS/FOG/RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE TO IFR STATUS ALONG/EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT AT THIS TIME ON THE LVS/TCC TAFS CONTAIN
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY
AREAS THROUGH 12Z. STRONGEST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
WESTERN UTAH. STRONG GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE PRODUCING
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MIGRATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ABOUT HALF OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING PCPN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE
ERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY SUNDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO WITH
A SECONDARY TROUGH LINGERING OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.  A SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN MON/MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE. FOR THIS
PERIOD...THERE MAY BE A LARGE DISPARITY IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WHEN
COMPARING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO THE ERN PLAINS. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  59  36  61 /  40   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  34  56  26  57 /  40  10   5   0
GRANTS..........................  40  61  30  61 /  70  20  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  48  67  46  69 /  60  20  10   5
CHAMA...........................  37  52  29  51 /  90  30  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  59  42  58 /  80  40  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  38  57  31  54 /  80  40  20  20
TAOS............................  47  60  39  58 /  70  40  20  10
SANTA FE........................  47  61  42  61 /  70  50  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  64  44  64 /  60  50  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  45  66  42  67 /  60  40  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  68  50  68 /  60  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  51  70  47  70 /  60  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  65  47  65 /  60  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  69  47  68 /  60  30  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  53  73  47  71 /  60  40  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  63  39  64 /  70  40  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  48  65  42  63 /  70  40  20  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  72  49  65 /  50  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  48  64  42  61 /  50  40  20  20
RATON...........................  50  68  43  59 /  60  40  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  48  63  42  59 /  70  40  20  20
ROY.............................  49  68  45  60 /  70  50  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  56  71  47  62 /  90  60  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  56  74  51  63 /  70  40  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  72  55  71 /  90  60  30  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  74  54  67 /  70  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  60  71  53  66 /  70  60  40  40
PORTALES........................  62  73  55  68 /  70  50  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  64  78  57  73 /  60  50  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ002>007-009>012-015>017-026.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ001-008-014.

&&

GUYER/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
725 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

UPDATE TO EXPAND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA.

NMZ001>021-026-121200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
725 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF NEW MEXICO UNTIL AROUND 1 AM. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 OR 55 MPH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING TEXAS. THE GREATEST
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT FROST OR FREEZE AS EARLY AS
LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO THIRD OF
THE STATE...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER
STATEMENTS...FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  TO REPORT SEVERE
WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE OR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

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