Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER LOW COMPLEX CONTINUING TO SPLIT AND FILL
SOMEWHAT...AND HAVING RETROGRADED SOMEWHAT AS WELL...THE SHOWER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FINALLY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FCST
FOR W NM AND NOW THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT
TO E PORTION OF NM. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE EASED INTO FAR
SE NM A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGED
WESTWARD. KEPT IN LOW POPS FAR E CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF FCST
AREA FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT TRIMMED BACK JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM PREVIOUS DEPICTION AS DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR PCPN QUITE AS FAR W AS EARLIER THOUGHT. WILL HOIST RATHER
SMALL SIZED WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ZONES 5 AND
7 AS WELL AS RED FLAG WARNING FOR ROUGHLY E HALF OF NM. SAME AREA
FOR MON UNDER A FIRE WX WATCH. MOISTURE DRIVEN BACK EASTWARD MON
AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON.
AS RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK FLOW ALOFT
LIGHTENS UP A BIT AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. BACK DOOR FRONT
BRINGS SOME MOISTURE IN FROM E TO W LATE TUE INTO WED AND WILL
KEEP MOSTLY LOW POPS IN FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD FOR E AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
STATE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN BOUNDARY
OF THE STATE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER...MAINLY EAST OF ROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LVS...CAO...AND RTN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS AND VIZ WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM SPINNING DOWN OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL CONTINUE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY AND SHIFTS TO
THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP
ALONG EASTERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO WILL HELP ACCELERATE SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW TODAY...WITH MODEST MOMENTUM MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANOTHER GUSTY DAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES HEADING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TODAY WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...EASING AS HUMIDITIES RECOVER AROUND SUNSET...AND CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL UPGRADE TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE SETTING UP ALONG TEXAS BORDER
MAY FOCUS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ROOSEVELT AND CURRY
AND COUNTIES...BUT SUFFICIENT PRECIPITABLE WATER SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
AN INCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE STARTS TO A MINIMUM.

VERY SIMILAR SET UP FOR MONDAY...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO NEVADA WILL SHOVE DRYLINE EASTWARD INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. CONTINUED AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY.

DECREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ON TUESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
EAST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NEVADA
WOBBLES WESTWARD TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WILL  HELP EASE HUMIDITIES...AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS FOR THE DAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...CLOSED LOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO
FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC. DRYLINE SHIFTING WELL WEST TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
BROADEN COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  77  46  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  72  38  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  77  39  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  85  46  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  69  33  72  33 /   0   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  42  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  65  34  68  33 /   5   0   5   5
TAOS............................  74  39  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  77  45  78  45 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  46  81  46 /   0   0   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  82  45  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  83  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  79  52  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  85  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  87  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  46  78  49 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  46  82  49 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  54  86  51 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  80  47  81  46 /   5   0   0   0
RATON...........................  82  44  81  44 /   5   0   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  45  79  45 /   5   0   5   0
ROY.............................  81  51  83  49 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  86  56  87  55 /   5   5   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  86  53  88  52 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  60  94  57 /  10  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  60  92  55 /   5   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  91  60  93  57 /  20  20   5   5
PORTALES........................  91  61  94  59 /  20  20   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  62  96  59 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ005-007.

&&

43/SHY

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