Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW AND RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
YESTERDAY. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS IN COLORADO SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
DRIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY...IS FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE A TURN TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES AS IT
CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST AND SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS TOMORROW...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION... THE
UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING OVER NORTHERN NM WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD..AND
AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME PERIOD AS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEARS AND PICKS UP WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS OLD
MEXICO. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME 50-60 POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. THOUGH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED...STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED
SOME...THOUGH...IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAR LESS FOR TUESDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CLOUD
COVER...AND POSSIBLY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SIMILAR AREAL COVERAGE
IF NOT A BIT MORE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TERMINAL SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ESPECIALLY ROW AND
TCC. MVFR AND SOME LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE VERSUS JUST THE LOW CLOUD EVENT THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
LVS...TCC AND ROW WILL MOST LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY AT LEAST LOW
CLOUDS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TREND UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LOWEST HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER WHERE READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RH EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AREAWIDE AHEAD OF A
VIGOROUS TROUGH PASSAGE. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
POURING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HOWEVER ARE LOOKING AT DEPICTING A BACK DOOR FRONT AND SOME WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THIS FRONT WILL SPILL WESTWARD AND INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  63  80 /  20  20  30  50
GALLUP..........................  56  82  57  75 /  10  20  30  60
GRANTS..........................  57  81  56  75 /  20  20  30  60
GLENWOOD........................  59  85  58  82 /  30  50  40  60
CHAMA...........................  45  78  46  72 /  50  30  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  78  51  73 /  30  20  30  50
RED RIVER.......................  41  70  42  67 /  40  40  30  40
TAOS............................  51  80  52  74 /  40  20  20  40
SANTA FE........................  55  78  55  72 /  20  30  30  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  80  55  74 /  20  20  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  54  84  54  78 /  20  20  20  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  82  62  78 /  20  20  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  84  61  79 /  20  20  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  80  57  77 /  20  20  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  83  61  78 /  20  20  30  50
SOCORRO.........................  61  82  60  79 /  20  40  30  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  73  49  72 /  20  20  30  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  78  51  74 /  20  20  30  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  78  55  77 /  30  40  30  50
RUIDOSO.........................  53  67  50  68 /  40  50  40  50
RATON...........................  53  81  53  78 /  30  20  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  75  51  72 /  30  20  30  40
ROY.............................  57  78  57  75 /  30  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  60  83  60  82 /  30  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  58  84  58  81 /  30  20  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  83  63  84 /  30  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  81  61  81 /  30  30  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  62  78  60  83 /  30  50  20  30
PORTALES........................  62  79  61  83 /  30  50  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  64  78  63  81 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2008

NMZ001>021-026-301200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
552 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
STATE BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 1.888.386.7637 OR ON THE ALBUQUERQUE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE.

52

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